Matrix Gaming And The Futures Narrative

Things end badly in Taiwan.

Matrix Gaming is a technique that can be used to develop a strategic narrative. We can use this in an historical context to generate, say, alternative histories; or we can use it in a contemporary context to develop a set of current strategic alternatives. From a futures context, we can use the technique to examine a set of alternative futures around a particular issue.

The technique works in an additive way, where a sequence of narratives - often competing narratives - are layered upon each other to tell a nuanced story about an unfolding future. When the competing narratives give rise to an impossible clash of events, the game umpires will help to resolve this clash through a variety of techniques that allow them to do so.

The game is played in a sequence of turns. Each turn represents a specific time period. In a game about the present, each turn could represent the activities undertaken in a day, or a week, a quarter, or whatever time period has relevance. The point is that the game turns are relatively short. In a game about the future, the period of time represented by the game turn can be much longer. For example, in a game examining how an issue might develop between now and mid-century, a six turn game with each turn representing five years would do the trick. If, on the other hand, we wanted to examine developments to the end of the century, then a game of eight turns, each spanning a decade, might be more appropriate. It is best to aim at a game of between six and eight turns.

Each of the players adopts the persona of an actor within the game. This can be a bit like role playing at times. The number of actors is, in many ways, determined by the issue to be examined. The actors could be specific people or nations, or they could be something more abstract. The point is that they are an actor relevant to the issue to be examined. Each actor - real or abstract - is normally given a set of objectives to achieve in the game. In each turn, each actor states an action that they would like to undertake in that time period, along with three reasons to justify that action. This will have a consequence. The umpires will then assess the success of that action - or otherwise - in relation to that consequence. Like this, an ongoing narrative within the game builds up.

At the end of the game, the players will have generated a futures narrative around a specific issue within a certain time frame. This is normally what we would call a scenario and it provides the link between matrix gaming and futures work. Different games will yield different results. It is best to treat each game as a means of highlighting the broad contours of an emergent future. It is possible to vary this by changing the objectives of one or more of the players in a subsequent game on the same issue. Like this, a set of scenarios could be generated using the technique to provide a range of future contours for the issue concerned.

This can be very useful in seeking alternative futures. The technique brings out the inner creativity of the players whilst providing a focus for their attention on a given problem. It becomes a means to generate a set of strategic narratives in a relatively systematic way. It is through playing with the uncertainties involved that we can become more acquainted with the broad outline of an emergent future.

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

© The European Futures Observatory 2020