By 2040, after a period of unduly hot weather, the Polar Ice Cap has retreated northwards at a relatively faster rate than had been seen before. The eastern edge of the ice cap had moved well to the north of Franz Josef Land and Svalbard. On the western edge of the ice cap, the ice had retreated northwards to allow Banks Island to become mainly ice free. The UNESCO World Heritage tentative site in Canadian territorial waters is now ice free all year round.
Canada starts to leverage a number of investments in ocean technologies and digital ocean assets, resulting in relatively high levels of food security and a strengthening of the Canadian Water Exchange. There are calls to strengthen the role of the RCMP in the Beaufort Sea as the incidence of piracy and poaching has increased.
The US has improved it's water security through the use of technology in conjunction with a pre-existing pipe framework, with the result that water resources are better managed. This leads to a reduction in water abstraction rates from the Great Lakes and the reduction in pollution levels witnessed in the Great Lake Basin and the downstream St Lawrence waterway.
China continues to invest in the commercial transit corridor of the Northern Sea Route. A new satellite network is installed to improve navigation along the route and to allow the commercial exploitation of the Yamal gas field once suitable shipping infrastructure is in place. The satellite network uses Chinese technology from Huawei, but is operated by Russian technicians from the Russian Aerospace Forces. The satellite network has both commercial and military uses, including navigation, drone control, surveillance, and missile guidance systems.
Russia introduced a new system to legitimise, commercialise, and tax various forms of fishing in it's Arctic territorial waters. The enforcement role is to be undertaken by various elements of the Russian military forces and the commercial aspects are to be given to the Siloviki to operate. This provides Russian business elements a flow of international funds. The new scheme serves to strengthen the position of the Russian government internally.
Russia and Japan enter agree a new joint security framework to reduce the incidence of piracy and poaching in the Sea of Okhotsk. To support this new framework, elements of the Japanese Navy will be stationed at a forward base at Petropavlosk Kamchatskiy on the understanding that they adhere to Russian law.
At the UN, declining fish stocks and biodiversity were recognised as a priority by the European Commission, the US, Canada, and Japan. They are not seen as a priority by China and the view of Russia was not sought.
The European Commission extends the scope of the Horizon Europe funding initiative to academic institutions outside of Europe. Funding is offered to, and accepted, by institutions in Russia and the US. Funding was declined by institutions in China, Canada, and Japan. A better view of the EU is held by the US, but not by China. Japan, Russia, and Canada are ambivalent about the EU.
The government of South Korea lodged a complaint with the European Court of Justice that the European Commission was not abiding by its own tariff regime by imposing an 80% tariff on all fish caught in the Arctic and landed at European ports. The ECJ upheld the complaint and directed the European Commission to start to collect the tariff.
Under European tariff arrangements with the EFTA nations, the 80% tariff has to be imposed and collected on Greenlander, Icelandic, and Norwegian catches landed in their home ports. This has the effect of the increased unpopularity of the EU amongst the European Arctic nations.
A proposal was made to allow the European Union to attain observer status at the Arctic Council. The US and Canada voted for the motion. Russia, Norway, and Iceland voted against the motion, which was not carried.
As a result of the severe drought experience between 2036 and 2040, there has been a substantial movement of people from the southern to northern hemispheres. The main flows of people are northwards from Central America, through Mexico, into North America; northwards from equatorial Africa, northern Africa, and the Middle East, across the Mediterranean into Europe; and northwards from Central and South Asia into China and Russia. The flows of people have overwhelmed the reception facilities in the destination countries and has started to manifest itself as a political issue.
The climate has now started to have an impact on the human condition. Much of the planet is starting to become difficult to live in. This will naturally have an impact upon the Arctic. How much of that will manifest itself by 2045?
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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