Wednesday 18 November 2020

The Belarussian Right Hook - The Timeline

The object of this game was to derive a timeline that could be used as an input into an economic and financial wargame at a later stage. This begs the question of what that timeline would look like and how we would order the output for that purpose. Key to our thinking is simultaneity - if that is happening here, then what is happening there? The geopolitical game provides us with a narrative from which we can develop the timeline.

The first issue we have to address is whose timeline? This touches upon a core issue of who the actors should be in the economic and financial game. This expands the focus of the game from being concerned about regional events in Eastern Europe to being concerned about global reactions to these events. That is quite a switch. 

The geopolitical game laid down an event, and we now have to consider how that event would be viewed by the actors in the economic and financial game. A first run at who the actors would be are: the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the People's Bank of China. This would imply a five player game. This could be adjusted at a later date to include other financial actors representing other financial centres. 

This thinking lends itself readily to a cross impact matrix style of thinking. This is our first attempt at weaving this into a timeline:

Timeline: D+3
Geopolitical headline: Russia advances across southern Ukraine and besieges Kiev. Romania maintains the independence of Moldova.
Response in: 
Washington: Concern at events, diplomatic efforts to contain the situation. 
Brussels: Concern at events, diplomatic efforts to contain the situation. 
Tokyo: Concern at events. 
London: Concern at events, diplomatic efforts to contain the situation. 
Beijing: Concern at events

Timeline: D+6
Geopolitical headline: Kiev falls, Russia consolidates it's hold on southern Ukraine, Romania invades Ukraine.
Response in: 
Washington: Diplomatic efforts to restrain Romania. 
Brussels: Diplomatic efforts to restrain Romania. 
Tokyo: Concern at escalation of events. 
London: Diplomatic efforts to restrain Romania.  
Beijing: Concern at escalation of events.

Timeline: D+9
Geopolitical headline: The Ukrainian army is largely destroyed and the Romanian Army is defeated and retreats back towards Moldova.
Response in: 
Washington: Warns Russia that Romania is a member of the NATO alliance, has been defeated, and ought to be allowed to withdraw to Moldova. 
Brussels: Under the Common Security and Defence Policy, the Visegrad Battlegroup and the Nordic Battlegroup are alerted to activation.  
Tokyo: Concerned by events, places armed forces on alert. 
London: Follows US lead within the NATO framework.
Beijing: Concerned by events, places armed forces on alert.

Timeline: D+12
Geopolitical headline: Romanian Army destroyed in Ukraine, Poland invades Ukraine and advances towards Kiev, the Lithuanian Army invades northern Russia.
Response in: 
Washington: Facilitates escalation in Eastern Europe, considers the actions of Lithuania and Poland as occurring within the NATO framework as a response to actions against the Romanian Army.
Brussels: Under the Common Security and Defence Policy, the Visegrad and Nordic Battlegroups are committed to action. Hungary dissents, Germany remains undecided. 
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert. 
London: Places armed forces on alert, waits for lead from Washington. 
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.

Timeline: D+15
Geopolitical headline: Article 5 triggered and NATO airpower committed to action in Ukraine. Polish forces capture Kiev and the Nordic Battlegroup drives further into Russia.
Response in: 
Washington: Congress approves Presidential action, US forces to be committed as they become available. 
Brussels: Proposal to commit EU to NATO actions. 
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert. 
London: Commits RAF and Royal Navy to the conflict, along with land based forces when they are available. 
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.

Timeline: D+18
Geopolitical headline: Germany supports Poland, Sweden and Finland arrive in the Baltic States. The Nordic Battlegroup drives on to the Dnieper.
Response in: 
Washington: Diplomatic and material assistance to NATO allies, USAF committed to action. 
Brussels: Wrangling over the degree of commitment to provide to NATO. Hungary, Greece and Cyprus objecting to the EU becoming involved.
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert. 
London: Commits to supporting NATO action. 
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.

Timeline: D+21
Geopolitical headline: Russia destroys the Lithuanian Army and advances to repel the invaders. Russia advances in Ukraine to besiege Kiev again.
Response in: 
Washington: Diplomatic and material assistance to NATO allies, USAF committed to action. 
Brussels: Wrangling over the degree of commitment to provide to NATO. Hungary, Greece and Cyprus objecting to the EU becoming involved. 
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert. 
London:  Commits to supporting NATO action. 
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.

Timeline: D+24
Geopolitical headline: NATO forces in Ukraine push back Russian forces across southern Ukraine. Nordic Battlegroup pushed back in north west Russia.
Response in: 
Washington: Diplomatic and material assistance to NATO allies, USAF committed to action. 
Brussels: Wrangling over the degree of commitment to provide to NATO. Hungary, Greece and Cyprus objecting to the EU becoming involved. 
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert. 
London: Commits to supporting NATO action. 
Beijing: Concerned by events, all armed forces remain on alert. Forces stationed across the Taiwan Strait and by the South China Sea placed on very high alert.

Timeline: D+27
Geopolitical headline: Russian forces largely expelled from Ukraine. The Nordic Battlegroup make gains in north west Russia.
Response in: 
Washington: Diplomatic and material assistance to NATO allies, USAF committed to action. 
Brussels: Watered down and ineffective commitment to support NATO. 
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces placed on high alert. 
London: Commits to supporting NATO action. 
Beijing: Concerned by events, all armed forces remain on alert. Forces stationed across the Taiwan Strait and by the South China Sea readied for action.

This framework gives us about four weeks of events to map into the economic and financial game. All of the central bank actors will be expected to support the geopolitical and diplomatic efforts of their governments. At the end of the sequence, we wanted to hint at the possibility of China becoming more aggressive in south east Asia as the US becomes distracted by events in Eastern Europe. This isn't the only possibility. We could have placed the possibility of Chinese support to the US in return for China annexing a slice of Far Eastern Russia. Either possibility would provide an interesting game focused on Chinese opportunism.

We now have a developed timeline resulting from the game that can be used as a sequence of inputs for a ten turn economic and financial game (we need to include D+0, the opening position) involving five players. However, before we turn to that, we would like just one more post on this game that looks at the lessons learned. This framework is something of an experiment for us in nested scenario building and it would pay us to reflect on the technique and the outcome.

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

© The European Futures Observatory 2020

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