The Modern Tribes Of Scotland

We seem to be living through a period of constitutional upheaval in Great Britain. In the past decade, it has become apparent that many Britons do not feel that they are living in the best of states. What's more, their dislike of the present arrangements are sufficiently strong to compel them to act to change it. This has come to a head over two issues - British membership of the European Union, and Scottish membership of the United Kingdom.

We are all aware of the outcome of the review of British membership of the European Union, conveniently called Brexit. Britain marginally voted in 2016 to leave the EU and finally achieved that ambition fully in 2021. At the 2019 General Election, only one national party - the Liberal Democrats - stood on a policy of re-joining the EU, and they only attracted 11.5% of the votes. This hardly demonstrates a popular desire to re-join the EU. For all intents and purposes, we ought to treat Brexit as an established fact.

A more interesting question arises when looking at the regional votes on Brexit. In 2016, only 38% of voters in Scotland voted for Leave. 62% voted to Remain in the EU. This is an important variation on the national picture when set against the Scottish Referendum vote in 2014. In that, 45% of Scots voted for Independence, with 55% voting for the Union. In the two years between, the questions of independence and Europe became intertwined. In 2014, Scots were asked to vote for the Union as a way to guarantee continued membership of the EU. After Brexit, many Scots felt let down about the implicit promise made in 2014, which has galvanised the support for the Scottish National Party (SNP).

It would be tempting to portray the Independence faction as Remainers, but that would be misleading. There are, as it happens, four main tribes in modern Scotland. There are the Indy/Remainers, whose principal voice is the SNP. These are mainly liberal, credentialed, middle-class voters. Then there are the Indy/Leavers, whose voice used to be the Labour Party, but don't really have a home in Scottish politics at the moment. These are mainly conservative, school leaver, lower middle class and manual voters. They will be a key constituency in any future vote. Thirdly, there are the Unionist/Remainers, whose principal voice is provided by the Liberal Democrat Party. These tend to be the liberal, credentialed, more affluent voters. Finally, there are the Unionist/Leavers, who are mostly represented by the Conservative Party. These tend to be the conservative, credentialed, more affluent voters. These tribes have become more tribal in recent years. They even have their own tartans.

As we look ahead, one of the consequences of Brexit has been to open up again the question of Scottish Independence. The sides have already started to form. The Indy/Remainers are coalescing around the SNP, who are looking to consolidate their support with a commitment to seek to rejoin the EU. Ranged against this are the Unionist/Remainers and the Unionist/Leavers, who are coalescing around the Conservative Party, the rump of the Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats. In terms of support, current polling suggests that the SNP has the edge over the Unionists, but that the lead is smaller than those who are undecided. The key uncertainty is which choice the Indy/Leavers will opt for.

The Indy/Leaver vote, although small, may be pivotal in deciding a future Independence Referendum. Many voters in this group are hostile to the idea of rule by Westminster, but also have reservations over taking on rule from Brussels instead. The SNP are struggling to make the case with this constituency. If the Unionist/Leavers can make the case that Westminster is the lesser evil when compared to Brussels, then the SNP may not win the day.

Of course, this assumes that the national government agrees to allow a second Independence Referendum. The government in Westminster is no longer the liberally inclined conservatism of the Cameron years. Westminster is now controlled by a virulent form of English Nationalism. Already Westminster has signalled that it will not grant a legally valid second referendum. If the SNP received a mandate from the Scottish people in May 2021 - if the elections aren't postponed because of COVID - it remains to be seen how the SNP will convince Westminster to pass the necessary legislation.

One inducement could be the Barnett Formula. This was a funding formula that was devised in 1978 to buy off the vote on Scottish Devolution at that time. It permanently enshrines higher levels of public spending per capita in Scotland when compared to England. In 2018-19, that equated to an additional £2,000 per capita. If the SNP were to offer to give this up in return for a second referendum, that might be palatable for the English Nationalists. It would be a gamble on the part of the SNP. If they won the referendum, they would lose the additional funding in any case as an independent nation. If they lost the referendum, the spending cuts associated with the loss of funding would generate a grievance to be nurtured over the long term.

Whatever happens, change is coming. All parties are unhappy with the present situation. All parties have their ideas about how the future should unfold. These ideas are generally mutually exclusive, which means that a degree of conflict is inevitable. How it actually unfolds is anyone's guess. At present, the numbers are with the SNP. However, their position is so tenuous that, on a binary issue, the opposite could be true at any time.

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

© The European Futures Observatory 2021