Brexit In A Single Picture

This picture, which appeared in The Economist of July 29th 2017 under the title 'Northern Uproar' (p. 24 UK edition), caught my attention because it explains the Brexit vote in England in a single picture. The picture shows that public transport investment spending per capita between 2016 to 2021 in London is roughly the same as that for the rest of England combined. It shows how skewed transport investment is towards London. Other areas feel that they are not receiving their fair share of the cake. This story is repeated across the public sector. It is the same for schools, social services, the NHS, elder care, and housing. It helps to foster the belief that the regions are being left behind. This is where the people left behind live.

It is really toxic. The benefits of globalisation have been enjoyed by London over the past two decades, whilst the regions have been allowed to decline. Some politicians have talked about regional renewal, but not a great deal has been delivered. We are now in a position where a good part of the costs of Brexit will fall disproportionately upon London - especially in the financial services sector - much to the indifference of the rest of England.

We should note that the chart shows future spending plans as well as past expenditures. If it remains as it is, then the divide between London and the rest of England will simply increase. Ordinarily that would not matter too much, but as the regions have recently discovered, there are more voters living in regional England than there are living in London.

Now that muscle has been flexed, can we expect more surprises like Brexit?

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

© The European Futures Observatory 2017