Using Megagames To Unlock The Future

All quiet on the Taiwan front!

I was recently asked to act in an analyst role in a megagame undertaken by professional wargamers. Normally I would participate as a player, but this invitation gave me an opportunity to stand back and consider the use of megagames as a technique to generate stories about the future. The game we played was 'Dire Straits', a megagame set at the beginning of 2020, that sought to explore some of the diplomatic and military possibilities that might unfold in East Asia at that point in time.

A megagame is a non-linear representation of a complex system in which the actors interact to generate a narrative about a future state. In Dire Straits, we had about 120 players, representing most of the nations on the Indo-Pacific axis, advancing what they thought to be their national interests. The game wasn't at all deterministic, which allowed the players to roam over any form of policy option. It is satisfying that, in the scenario generated, war didn't result. However, in a number of flashpoints the participants moved up to the jump point, but then backed away again. This had a refreshingly familiar ring to it.

In considering why we might want to use megagames as a tool for unlocking the future, five analytical points came to mind:

1. A ‘game’ represents a ‘system’. In the case of Dire Straits, the system being represented is the web of international relations in East Asia and beyond. This compels us to think systemically about international relations.
2. If we have a system, then we will need actors to operate the system. This compels us to identify the key actors within the system and their motivations to act within the system.
3. The system consists of a series of relationships between the various actors. The game compels us to define the relationships between the various actors and examine the modes by which they interact with each other.
4. The interactions between the actors permits us to examine the strategies they adopt in their interactions. The game compels us to adopt a strategy to play the game and to monitor the outcomes of the strategies adopted
5. From a systemic perspective, this then opens the possibility of wind-tunnelling various potential strategies from within the game framework. This can be used to identify, consider, and experiment with various policy options. 

It is my view that megagames are a valid tool for generating future narratives. They are best suited to large questions because, as a technique, they are not an inexpensive exercise. By definition, they involve a large amount of staff time. In order to yield interesting results, they need to be conducted several times. However, they can provide a way to cut through the complexity that is inherent in many systems. 

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

© The European Futures Observatory 2017