This is the companion volume to the earlier historical work by the author. It works as a contemporary analysis in the age of Brexit and Trump. As a futures work it is far less convincing. I think that this is because it struggles to escape from the present, and falls into the trap of seeing the future as the same as the present, only more so.
I am very taken by the analysis of the present. In many respects, the opening of this book continues the story of the previous book. The previous book more or less comes to today. This books starts in the recent past and updates us on where we are today. It charts the movement in the locus of the world economy back eastwards again. It establishes the Heart of the World as a central component in our story. It highlights the role of trade and economic interdependence as the basis upon which our prosperity rests. In a globalised world, our gaze shifts back to where it was before the Industrial Revolution.
The rise of Asia has been at the expense of the western nations. More precisely, at the expense of the working and middle classes of the western nations. And they don't like it. The author sees this as the underpinnings of both Trump and his 'America First' philosophy, and Brexit and the 'Taking Back Control' philosophy. The rivalry between the US and China pre-dates Trump, but Trump has given the rivalry a sharper edge. On reflection, this process can be seen in the alarms of the 1980s, when the fear was that Japan would dominate the western nations. That didn't happen, but the fear remains.
This provides the key to the future. We have a resurgent China, a Russia that has found itself after the Communist interlude, a more assertive Iran, and a more dynamic India. This is the lens, according to the author, through which we shall view the future. I am not so sure. It may be a bit early to write off Europe and North America just yet. The dynamism that brought them to prominence three hundred years ago is still there. Africa is another area that has the opportunity to develop its potential in this century. We cannot write off Africa quite yet. However, it is hard to dispute that Asia will loom large in our emergent futures. The question is whether we should resist or accommodate that rise?
My inclination is to accommodate rather than to resist. Not everyone agrees. It will be interesting to see how this tussle plays out in the coming years. What we can say for certain is that we occupy a point of change, and that the future is likely to be quite different from the past.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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