By 2045, the direction of the game had rather taken shape. The axes of co-operation and conflict had been set, and it was a case allowing these to run their course. It was inevitable that, with so much military hardware in the region, the latent conflict would run hot sooner or later. This was against a background of a more challenging climate. However, not all of the players were sucked into the conflict, although they all played their part. As it happens, 2045 started off quite peacefully.
Iran took steps to put to work the climate refugees that are coming into the country through a job creation programme that focuses on food production and a strengthening of the water network.
Elections are held in Afghanistan - under US supervision - that result in the Taliban winning a landslide victory at the polls. As part of their winning manifesto, the Taliban ask the United States to vacate the bases held at Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Bagram. The United States refuses to leave. The Taliban cut off the water and power supplies to the bases and decide to continue the policy of denying the US access to Afghan airspace.
The US troops (16,000 at Bagram; 2,000 each at Herat and Mazar-i-Sharif) suffer from a lack of food and water; and from the absence of rotation and denial of access to their families and friends. By 2045, the US troops in Afghanistan are mutinous and increasingly do not follow the chain of command.
The new government in Kabul is recognised by Russia, China, and Iran; but is not recognised by the US and Kazakhstan.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan join the BRI as full participating members. This results in the build out of the BRI railroad between Tashkent and Bukhara, and China being granted a 99 year lease on a port facility at Turkmenbashi. The port will have dual commercial and military usage. There will be joint naval operations at Turkmenbashi, where China will contribute A2/AD missile coverage.
Rent on the lease will be paid through Chinese financial institutions in Shanghai and Hong Kong to give Turkmen financial institutions access to the Far Eastern capital markets, along with those of other BRI member destinations.
Kazakhstan increases its efforts to develop the water infrastructure through additional desalinisation plants and the development of a main water pipeline that spans the country. The pipeline is surveyed, but remains to be built out. This is very popular and a happy face is added to Astana.
Russia enhances the naval and air support facilities at Aktau. The military footprint at Bishket is enhanced, but at the cost of deteriorating relations with the government of Kyrgyzstan. Russia seeks to enhance the military footprint at Dushanbe, but the government of Tajikistan refuses consent to this expansion.
Russia undertakes a naval blockade in the southern Caspian Sea to halt trade between Turkmenbashi and Baku. The Russian Caspian Flotilla is deployed, interdicts the Turkmen mercantile marine and escorts it to the home port of Astrakhan.
The Turkmen flotilla follows the retiring Russian flotilla and undertakes a retaliatory missile strike on the Kazakh desalinisation plants at Tengiz. Only slight damage is incurred, not enough to interrupt water production.
The Turkmen flotilla returns to base at Turkmenbashi, but is intercepted by the Russian flotilla in the Caspian Sea. In the exchange, two Turkmen missile boats are sunk and the remaining one damaged. There is a retaliatory exchange of missile fire from the Chinese batteries located in Turkmenbashi, resulting in the loss of one Russian Frigate and eight Russian Corvettes, nearly the entire Russian Caspian Sea flotilla.
The position of the Russian President internally remains precarious. On the one hand, the US sanctions on Russian citizens are lifted. They remain strictly imposed in European capital markets and there is a dramatic increase in the activity of organised criminal networks in North America. On the other hand, the Caspian Sea flotilla has been largely lost and the position of the President is being openly questioned. There are signs that the chain of command is not being adhered to.
The United States embarks on a concerted military campaign in the region. A salvo of 20 cruise missiles are fired from US naval ships in the Persian Gulf at targets in southern Turkmenistan. They fly through Iranian airspace. Iran intercepts 6 missiles, hacks into the guidance systems, and returns them to the point of origin. Six US naval warships are either crippled beyond repair or sunk. The remaining 14 missiles reach their targets in the Karakum Desert, destroying a variety of Taliban military units, but not seriously degrading the effectiveness of the Taliban forces as a whole.
Five long range surface to surface missiles are fired from sites in Afghanistan against targets in southern Turkmenistan. The Chinese anti-missile batteries in the area fire upon the incoming missiles and destroy all five. As a consequence of this, the Chinese anti-satellite batteries fire upon the US and Russian military satellites on overwatch across the region and destroy the capability completely. The US and Russia no longer has the ability for surveillance in the region, have missile guidance capabilities in the region, or can conduct drone operations in the region.
The people of Afghanistan are further alienated by the American actions. This results in further popular discontent focussed upon the US bases. An additional unhappy face is added to each US base in Afghanistan. The Taliban responds to the missile attacks by increasing the sale of heroin to the US bases in Afghanistan, further eroding US effectiveness and morale.
The US launches a high altitude bombing raid on Taliban positions in southern Turkmenistan from Incerlik airbase in Turkey. Turkey narrowly keeps open its airspace for US military operations against the Taliban. As the aircraft approach Turkmen airspace, the Chinese anti-aircraft batteries open fire against the aircraft and shoot down all five planes. There are no survivors.
The US and Russia fail to open a join military base at K2 in Uzbekistan. The US opens an airbase at Almaty in Kazakhstan, but the facilities need to be upgraded to accommodate military flights. Kazakhstan agrees to US opening a radar base at Baikonur, but logistical problems in moving equipment to the site mean that it is a long way from being operational. Plans to expand Bagram base in Afghanistan to accommodate and additional 100,000 ground troops are abandoned owing to logistical difficulties.
The United States now finds itself isolated diplomatically. NATO, the EU and Pacific Rim allies refuse to co-operate with the US. The UK is uncertain about co-operation, given its long and unfortunate history in the region. Internally, large segments of American public opinion are questioning the sanity of the President.
Russia has seen a serious loss of authority in the region. They are no longer feared by Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan; all of whom no longer look to Russia for strategic direction. Increasingly, these nations look to China for strategic direction.
The hot, dry, weather continues and worsens a little.
There is a movement of populations from the larger population areas in the region northwards. Iran remains relatively water and food secure. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan have programmes of social assistance and poverty relief. The urban populations are hungry, thirsty, poor, and angry. Unhappy faces will go on the capital cities of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Climate refugees are now arriving in Russia and Iran in large numbers. In Russia they are causing a degree of friction with the local populations. An unhappy face will go on all Russian cities.
The adverse weather continues to affect construction activity across the region.
The very dry state of the Siberian Forest has caused uncontrollable forest fires. The normal winter die back has not occurred because the rains and snows formerly experienced have not occurred. The oil pipeline and the BRI rail route between Kurgan and Omsk, and the oil pipeline and BRI rail route south of Novosibirsk are rendered inoperable. No Russian oil can reach China and all BRI freight is routed through Tashkent.
In the years 2046 to 2050 the average price of oil rises from $54 per barrel to $59 per barrel.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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