The original object of this game was to derive a timeline that could be used as an input into an economic and financial wargame at a later stage. The actual result was something of a surprise for us. Our original thoughts were that Russia would occupy Ukraine. The Russian invasion of the Baltic States was unclear at the start of the game, but as Russia had done so well, and as it had received such little opposition from NATO, Russia could become emboldened to resolve matters in the Baltic States also. This is how the timeline wove itself.
Timeline: D+3
Geopolitical headline: Russia advances from south west Belarus to occupy Lviv and north west Ukraine, before moving southwards to threaten Kiev. Russian columns advance from southern Russia across southern Ukraine to occupy Kharkov and to threaten Kiev. Russian reinforcements arrive from the Central and Far Eastern Military Regions and are deployed along the Russia-Ukraine border.
Response in:
Washington: Outrage at events, diplomatic efforts to contain the situation.
Brussels: Outrage at events, diplomatic efforts to contain the situation.
Tokyo: Concern at events.
London: Concern at events, diplomatic efforts to contain the situation.
Beijing: Concern at events
Timeline: D+6
Geopolitical headline: Russia occupies Odessa and Kiev. The Ukrainian army is destroyed in the field and Russia occupies all of Ukraine.
Response in:
Washington: Concern at escalation of events. Warning issued to Russia about the integrity of territorial boundaries in Europe.
Brussels: Concern at escalation of events. Warning issued to Russia about the integrity of territorial boundaries in Europe.
Tokyo: Concern at escalation of events.
London: Concern at escalation of events. Warning issued to Russia about the integrity of territorial boundaries in Europe.
Beijing: Concern at escalation of events.
Timeline: D+9
Geopolitical headline: Russian forces regroup and are redeployed along the Russian border with Latvia and Estonia. Russian forces deployed along the Ukrainian border with Poland.
Response in:
Washington: Outrage at escalation of events. Warning issued to Russia about the integrity of territorial boundaries in Europe.
Brussels: Under the Common Security and Defence Policy, the Visegrad Battlegroup and the Nordic Battlegroup are alerted to activation.
Tokyo: Concerned by events, places armed forces on alert.
London: Follows US lead within the NATO framework.
Beijing: Concerned by events, places armed forces on alert.
Timeline: D+12
Geopolitical headline: Russian forces invade Latvia and Estonia, defeating their armies in the field. Tallinn and Riga are occupied. Lithuania is invaded and Vilnius besieged. Article 5 is triggered and NATO counter-attacks. German and Polish forces relieve Vilnius and push back Russian troops to Riga. The Visegrad Battlegroup advances across southern Ukraine to occupy Dnepropetrovsk and Donetsk. Romanian forces besiege Odessa.
Response in:
Washington: The United States is placed upon a war footing. Material assistance is provided for European NATO allies and US forces are mobilised for action in Europe.
Brussels: Under the Common Security and Defence Policy, the Visegrad and Nordic Battlegroups are committed to action. Germany supports collective action.
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
London: Commits RAF and Royal Navy to the conflict, along with land based forces when they are available. GCHQ commences cyber warfare against Russian targets.
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
Timeline: D+15
Geopolitical headline: NATO airpower is committed to action. A small Ukrainian military force is gathered in Kharkov. Russian forces recapture Kharkov and Donetsk, pushing back the Visegrad Battlegroup. German forces besiege Russian occupied Riga and are repelled back to Vilnius.
Response in:
Washington: Congress approves Presidential action, US forces to be committed as they become available.
Brussels: Proposal to commit EU to NATO actions, no decision taken.
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
London: Commits to supporting NATO action.
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
Timeline: D+18
Geopolitical headline: Air conditions are favourable to Russia, giving overwhelming air superiority. Russia retakes Dnepropetrovsk and largely destroys the Visegrad Battlegroup. Ukrainian forces recapture Kharkov. The German and Polish armies are destroyed outside of Vilnius, which is occupied by Russian forces.
Response in:
Washington: Diplomatic and material assistance to NATO allies, USAF committed to action.
Brussels: Wrangling over the degree of commitment to provide to NATO. Hungary, Greece and Cyprus begin to object to the EU becoming involved.
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
London: Commits to supporting NATO action.
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
Timeline: D+21
Geopolitical headline: Russia destroys the remaining Ukrainian forces and reoccupies Kharkov. Odessa is relieved and the Romanian army is destroyed. Russian forces consolidate their position in the Baltic States and advance no further.
Response in:
Washington: Diplomatic and material assistance is given to the NATO allies.
Brussels: Wrangling over the degree of commitment to provide to NATO. Hungary, Greece and Cyprus object to the EU becoming involved.
Tokyo: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
London: Commits to supporting NATO action.
Beijing: Concerned by events, armed forces remain on alert.
As the game unfolded, the collapse of NATO was not readily evident. Germany and Poland were able to field armed forces of reasonable strength on paper. The Visegrad forces in southern Ukraine were able to threaten the Russian hold on that country, and there was a threat to Russian forces along the Polish-Ukrainian border.
The turning point was the German siege of Riga. Had the German forces occupied the city, Sweden and Finland could have ferried troops into the combat zone, which would have made all the difference. The failure to retake the city, even with air superiority, was the high point of the NATO advance. As it happens, both Riga and Tallinn remained closed to reinforcements from Sweden and Finland. This proved to be decisive. It allowed Russia to consolidate its hold on Riga and provided a launching pad from which the German army could be defeated in the field and from which the Polish army could be expelled from Vilnius, to be destroyed in detail. At that point, 21 days into the crisis, NATO ceased to have any forces in north eastern Europe. It was here that we called a halt to the game.
This is such an intriguing timeline. It has a feel of 1940 to it. The Red Team launches a blitzkrieg offensive that conquers all before it. There are a quick succession of Allied collapses. And with that, the international order prevailing up to that point falls apart. As stated before, this game is the prelude to an economic and financial game. One can wonder what impact this sequence of events would have on the financial markets. I guess we will have to play that game to find out.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2021
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