For much of human history the Arctic has been a closed environment. Historically, the region has contained some of the more extreme conditions on the planet that had left it generally unsuitable for widespread human habitation. As a result of this, the Arctic is largely underdeveloped in economic terms. Key pieces of physical infrastructure - such as roads, ports and airports – are not to be found there in great abundance. This lack of economic development has left the region largely unspoiled from an environmental perspective. There is a general lack of human settlement and there are minimal amounts of economic activity. The warming planet is expected to change this situation.
As a result of global warming, the Polar ice cap is melting. As the Polar ice cap retreats, the Arctic Ocean has started to assume a degree of importance as a potentially navigable waterway. The waterway could open a navigable route between East Asia and Europe on the one hand, and East Asia and the East Coast of North America on the other. This would reduce the maritime transit route for goods by a significant degree. Given the operation of wind and tides in the Arctic Ocean, the eastern coast (the Northern Sea Route, or Russian Passage) is likely to be open to commercial navigation before the western coast (the North West Passage, or Canadian Route).
The Arctic region contains significant mineral and hydrocarbon deposits. As the region warms, these deposits will become more accessible on a commercial basis. There is concern that the commercial development of these deposits could lead to a degree of environmental degradation within the region. The governance of the region has been led by the Arctic Council, which provides a framework whereby the region is used as a common asset by its members on a voluntary basis. One uncertainty about the future is concerned with the degree to which the Arctic nations would seek to enclose these commons once they assume significant commercial and financial value.
The Arctic Ocean also contains an important fishery. As the waters of lower latitudes start to warm, fish stocks may well migrate northwards into the Arctic region. Much commercial fishing is governed by international treaty, but these frameworks are largely absent for the Arctic region. A potential point of diplomatic disagreement could be the framework structure to regulate fishing in the Arctic region.
It is these factors that create the scope for a game. We tend to assume the shrinking of the polar ice cap and its potential for commercial exploitation as the most likely future. This is what we have dubbed as 'the Blue Arctic'. It could be that the residual winds, currents, and tides result in an Arctic that isn't fully navigable (which we dub the 'White Arctic'). However, we see the White Arctic as more in the nature of a wild card event.
Should the Blue Arctic prevail, the Arctic nations could react in one of two ways. First, they could consider the Arctic to remain a global commons. In this case, they could co-operate to restrict the degree of commercial development of the fisheries, the exploitation of the hydrocarbons and minerals, and to limit the use of the navigable waterway, all on a voluntary basis. In this possible future - the 'Green Arctic' scenario - the Arctic is preserved for humanity as a common resource. The second possibility is that the Arctic nations seek to exploit the region by enclosing it, develop the fisheries, mine the hydrocarbons and minerals, and utilise the navigable waterway. This future would probably involve the militarisation of the Arctic, hence the label the 'Red Arctic'.
Of these possible futures, the most likely outcome, given the current policies and actions, would be the Red Arctic. The enclosure and exploitation of the Arctic is already underway. In a previous exercise, we undertook a pathway scenario game that examined the Blue Arctic as a baseline scenario. Details of that game can be found here: Introducing the Unfrozen North. Taking the outcome of that game as a starting point for this game, we looked to develop an end state scenario game that explored the possibility of achieving the Green Arctic. What sort of issues would arise in negotiating a settlement? Could we find a way to solve the tragedy of the commons? If so, what sort of investment do we need to make today to achieve that future outcome?
In short, just how difficult would it be to achieve the Green Arctic scenario? That was the purpose of the game and the question it sought to answer.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2022
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