Having made their initial deployments, the players have used this starting point as a base from which to stretch out their gameplay in search of their objectives. It is interesting that both Iran and Saudi Arabia concentrated upon social and economic development in Turn 1, whilst the three minor players in the region - Syria, Iraq, and Kurdistan - had a focus upon political control. There is an inherent clash here that could well come to a head in Turn 2.
As a result of the game play, the following events were recorded:
1. We are now seeing the limit of the Biden Doctrine being tested in the Persian Gulf. The United States has committed to increase it's military footprint on the Gulf by starting to construct a base along the southern shores of the Persian Gulf, within Saudi Arabia. The new base, along with the existing bases, will be constructed to resist the worst effects of disruptive climate change. The US has deepened its ties with the nations along the south coast of the Persian Gulf.
2. Elsewhere, the US has increased the sale of arms to the government in Baghdad. This will be accompanied by the attendant training in their use and the tactics surrounding the use of the US arms. It has help to strengthen the prowess of the Iraqi federal forces.
3. Constitutional discussions continue in Iraq, but are proceeding at a slow pace. The key parties to the negotiations are the Federal Government and the Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan had hoped to access money from the IMF, but had yet to receive support from either the Iraqi Central Bank (which is under the control of the Federal Government) or the United States, which would be needed to approve and underwrite such finance.
4. The situation in Syria has stabilised. The crackdown within the areas under governmental control has diminished, to be replaced by a more modest programme to counter local corruption. The arrears of army pay have been addressed. Whilst some arrears remain, morale amongst the Syrian forces has noticeably improved. The government has embarked on a programme of humanitarian assistance through the provision of basic healthcare and, more importantly, through subsidies of food purchases. These changes do not extend to areas sympathetic to the Syrian opposition. They have resulted in the unhappy face being removed from Damascus.
5. There is a persistent rumour that Syrian oil, out of the port of Tartus, is being exported in contravention to UN sanctions. American satellite imagery suggests that the oil is being transported in tankers under Russian flags and communications intercepts by GCHQ suggest that the destination ports for these vessels are in China.
6. Relations between Turkey and Syria have been improved. The long awaited Turkish embassy in Damascus has finally opened with a great fanfare. A Turkish cultural centre has been established in the embassy and seeks to enhance Turkish influence within the country.
7. Saudi Arabia continues to invest in green technology and to use that technology to bind the 'Arab Family' nations. This has met with a modicum of success on the southern side of the Persian Gulf, but has gained no real traction elsewhere. Saudi prestige has risen south of the Persian Gulf.
8. Iran has started to manufacture, under licence from a South African biotech firm, genetically modified wheat, barley and rice seeds, that are heat resistant and drought resistant. Utilising the irrigation resources available, food production has risen considerably to reach a position where Iran now has a food surplus. The lowering of internal food prices, derived from the agricultural bonanza, has increased the approval ratings of the government, resulting in happy faces being placed on the major population areas.
9. China has continued to build out it's hydrocarbon assets in Iran. Bandar Abbas is now linked to the pan-Asian overland gas network and Tehran is now linked to the pan-Asian oil network. At the request of the government of Iran, China has installed a series of shore to ship defence missiles in Bandar Abbas. These have a range of about 600 km.
10. The UN allowed the JCPOA to lapse in 2025. This means that Iran is now no longer sanctioned under UN mandate, but still faces US imposed sanctions, which remain in place. Rather grudgingly, European entities have complied with the US sanctions. As a response to this, Russia has sought to put together a regional security framework. Most interested parties have been invited, but to date, only Russia, China, and Iran have shown an interest in mutual co-operation. It is intended that this new framework will be the main security guarantor in the Persian Gulf.
11. Within this framework of co-operation, joint naval exercises are now regularly undertaken by Russian and Chinese naval forces, of carrier group strength, within the Persian Gulf. These use Iranian naval port facilities for re-supply. As part of this framework, China has also added a carrier group that is based in Pakistan, just outside of the entrance to the Straits of Hormuz.
12. China has decided to focus on the greening of the global economy. There has been a great deal of investment in Green Tech, with varying results in a number of areas. In order to control these developments, China has decided to restrict the export of processed rare earth elements to those nations it considers to be inimical to Chinese interests. The main targets for these restrictions are Japan and the United States, but they also have an impact upon the Saudi plans for a greening of the Arab economy.
Crop yields have been wavering of late, leading to an increase in food prices across the region, coupled with more general shortages of water. For those areas whose governments have not taken mitigation steps, popular discontent has started to surface in the form of unhappy faces. At the moment, these are mumblings and grumblings that have yet to threaten any regime. However, discontent is growing and there is an expectation on the part of the more general populace that action will be taken to improve their lot.
1. We are now seeing the limit of the Biden Doctrine being tested in the Persian Gulf. The United States has committed to increase it's military footprint on the Gulf by starting to construct a base along the southern shores of the Persian Gulf, within Saudi Arabia. The new base, along with the existing bases, will be constructed to resist the worst effects of disruptive climate change. The US has deepened its ties with the nations along the south coast of the Persian Gulf.
2. Elsewhere, the US has increased the sale of arms to the government in Baghdad. This will be accompanied by the attendant training in their use and the tactics surrounding the use of the US arms. It has help to strengthen the prowess of the Iraqi federal forces.
3. Constitutional discussions continue in Iraq, but are proceeding at a slow pace. The key parties to the negotiations are the Federal Government and the Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan had hoped to access money from the IMF, but had yet to receive support from either the Iraqi Central Bank (which is under the control of the Federal Government) or the United States, which would be needed to approve and underwrite such finance.
4. The situation in Syria has stabilised. The crackdown within the areas under governmental control has diminished, to be replaced by a more modest programme to counter local corruption. The arrears of army pay have been addressed. Whilst some arrears remain, morale amongst the Syrian forces has noticeably improved. The government has embarked on a programme of humanitarian assistance through the provision of basic healthcare and, more importantly, through subsidies of food purchases. These changes do not extend to areas sympathetic to the Syrian opposition. They have resulted in the unhappy face being removed from Damascus.
5. There is a persistent rumour that Syrian oil, out of the port of Tartus, is being exported in contravention to UN sanctions. American satellite imagery suggests that the oil is being transported in tankers under Russian flags and communications intercepts by GCHQ suggest that the destination ports for these vessels are in China.
6. Relations between Turkey and Syria have been improved. The long awaited Turkish embassy in Damascus has finally opened with a great fanfare. A Turkish cultural centre has been established in the embassy and seeks to enhance Turkish influence within the country.
7. Saudi Arabia continues to invest in green technology and to use that technology to bind the 'Arab Family' nations. This has met with a modicum of success on the southern side of the Persian Gulf, but has gained no real traction elsewhere. Saudi prestige has risen south of the Persian Gulf.
8. Iran has started to manufacture, under licence from a South African biotech firm, genetically modified wheat, barley and rice seeds, that are heat resistant and drought resistant. Utilising the irrigation resources available, food production has risen considerably to reach a position where Iran now has a food surplus. The lowering of internal food prices, derived from the agricultural bonanza, has increased the approval ratings of the government, resulting in happy faces being placed on the major population areas.
9. China has continued to build out it's hydrocarbon assets in Iran. Bandar Abbas is now linked to the pan-Asian overland gas network and Tehran is now linked to the pan-Asian oil network. At the request of the government of Iran, China has installed a series of shore to ship defence missiles in Bandar Abbas. These have a range of about 600 km.
10. The UN allowed the JCPOA to lapse in 2025. This means that Iran is now no longer sanctioned under UN mandate, but still faces US imposed sanctions, which remain in place. Rather grudgingly, European entities have complied with the US sanctions. As a response to this, Russia has sought to put together a regional security framework. Most interested parties have been invited, but to date, only Russia, China, and Iran have shown an interest in mutual co-operation. It is intended that this new framework will be the main security guarantor in the Persian Gulf.
11. Within this framework of co-operation, joint naval exercises are now regularly undertaken by Russian and Chinese naval forces, of carrier group strength, within the Persian Gulf. These use Iranian naval port facilities for re-supply. As part of this framework, China has also added a carrier group that is based in Pakistan, just outside of the entrance to the Straits of Hormuz.
12. China has decided to focus on the greening of the global economy. There has been a great deal of investment in Green Tech, with varying results in a number of areas. In order to control these developments, China has decided to restrict the export of processed rare earth elements to those nations it considers to be inimical to Chinese interests. The main targets for these restrictions are Japan and the United States, but they also have an impact upon the Saudi plans for a greening of the Arab economy.
Crop yields have been wavering of late, leading to an increase in food prices across the region, coupled with more general shortages of water. For those areas whose governments have not taken mitigation steps, popular discontent has started to surface in the form of unhappy faces. At the moment, these are mumblings and grumblings that have yet to threaten any regime. However, discontent is growing and there is an expectation on the part of the more general populace that action will be taken to improve their lot.
In the years 2031 to 2035, the price of oil rises from $75 a barrel to $81 a barrel.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2022
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