Wednesday 12 October 2022

How can we play a wild card in a matrix game?

One of the important uses of a matrix game is to help us to unfold a future narrative. Almost by definition, that narrative needs to cover a long period in time, possibly decades. We have undertaken a number of matrix games within this time frame, but we have tended not to introduce wild cards. Our disinclination to play a wild card is based upon the belief that the outcome of the game should rely upon the actions of the players rather than the influence of some random event. This is possibly not a reasonable position to hold. In our Middle East matrix game, covering the period 2020 to 2050, it was pointed out that a 30-year period in this region without some form of seismic event was quite unlikely. The point was well made and led us to start to think about how we could introduce wild cards into a matrix game.

Perhaps it's best to start with what a wild card might be. In the world of futures, a wild card is defined as a low probability event that has a high impact. They are the type of event that have the capacity to re-shape the course of the future. For a more formal treatment of wild cards, see our paper from 2013 here: Playing the Wild Card (WFR 2013) As an example, the Covid pandemic could be seen as an archetypal wild card. A priori, it had a very low probability of spreading across the globe, shutting down whole economies, and disrupting societies at a global level. When it did just this, it had a huge impact upon us all. On the way we live, on the way we earn, and on the way in which we interact with each other. On a normal reckoning, one such event would occur within a given region of the world every 10 to 20 years. In a 30-year time period, we could expect one or two wild card events to occur. This is the case we have been persuaded by, and which we are to trial in our South China Sea game.

Our South China Sea matrix game is set to examine a potential course of geopolitical developments within the region over the period 2020 to 2050. During this game, we have decided that there shall be one wild card event. There are five dimensions to this that we wish to capture: what happens, how severe the event is, where it happens, in which turn it appears, and the number of players affected. We aim to undertake this at random using some form of randomiser, such as a six-sided die (a D6). We can unpack these five dimensions in turn.

The hardest part of the task is to identify six potential events. The significance of six events, as opposed to seven or five will be made apparent shortly. The six potential events that we have identified for the South China Sea region are: an ageing leadership structure with potential succession issues; a sequence of destructive earthquakes; a series of volcanic eruptions; a disruptive solar flare; the onset of a digital darkness; and a disruptive pandemic. Each of these events can be assigned a number from one to six, a D6 can be rolled, and that is the event we have to weave into the fabric of the game.

Whilst all wild card events, by definition, are high impact in the degree of destruction they wield, they are not all the same in intensity. Using one of the internal grading systems that we use for horizon scanning, there are six grades of intensity: high impact but low intensity; the event inspires corrective action; the event creates concern outside of the region; the event gets noticed at the global level; the event creates a lot of noise globally; and the event moves the needle globally. Once again, each of these degrees of intensity can be assigned a number from one to six, a D6 can be rolled, and that intensity of impact can be woven into the game.

There then arises the question of where the event takes place. Fortunately, most of the maps we use in our games are hex based maps, with the hex conveniently being a six-sided figure. Once again, each hex side can be assigned a number from one to six, a D6 can be rolled, and that location of impact can be woven into the game. We also need to consider the turn in which the event takes place. In a game of six turns, to each turn we can assign a number from one to six, a D6 can be rolled, and that timing of the impact can be woven into the game. Finally, we need to map the extent of the impact of the event on the number of players affected. In a nine-player game there is scope roll a D6 to assess the number of players affected and to assign the impact as emanating outwards from the epicentre of the impact.

This will give us the ability to weave a wild card into the scenario. The umpires will pre-determine all of these aspects of the wild card and apply them to the game. As the game is currently on-going, it would be better to lay this matter aside until the game is concluded. However, once the game is concluded, we shall return to highlight how we determined what to add to the game, how it was woven into the game, and how it may have influenced the game. But that is a story for another day.

Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2022

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