By 2050 the players had already come to blows. The key question, as Turn 6 starts, is whether or not we have seen the opening salvoes of World War III? As it turned out, we hadn't. However, there is a case to argue that the Battle of Turkmenbashi in 2045 was World War III, and that all of the combatants had stepped back from the threshold of allowing things to escalate. Or did they?
Iran proposes to construct an overland network of water and hydrocarbon pipes south of the Karakum desert, across Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and into China. The proposal never gains traction as the Taliban - despite an apparent commitment - refuse to fund it and, encouraged by China, refuses to support the plans.
China takes steps to extend and strengthen the BRI in the region. This results in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan becoming full participating members of the BRI. Chinese investment in work creation programmes in these countries helps to improve the mood of the populations, resulting in one unhappy face being removed from each country.
A new BRI rail corridor between Bukhara-Mari-Ashgabat-Turkmenbashi is surveyed and built. Commercial port facilities are upgraded at Turkmenbashi, with the construction of a new mercantile fleet being laid down at Turkmenbashi. The trade between Turkmenbashi and Baku resumes.
Turkmenistan and Afghanistan will enjoy preferential freight tariffs for goods originating in these countries, to include manufactures, agricultural produce, and extracted hydrocarbons.
Russia joins the BRI as a full participating member. As a member of the BRI, Russia receives assistance in tackling the Siberian forest fires, utilising the climate refugees as agricultural workers and establishing newly cleared farms in the region. The cost of this is borne by Russian borrowing on the North American capital markets, guaranteed by China and secured on the underlying assets.
The flow of oil and freight between Russia and China is restored, allowing Russian commercial interests to start to enjoy these revenue steams again.
The new farmlands serve to reduce the population pressure in Siberia, and the restored rail routes and oil pipelines help to improve prosperity in the region. This results in the unhappy faces in the region being removed. The land resources, with technical assistance from China, are now better managed by Russian entities.
The US commander in Afghanistan detaches himself from the chain of command and orders the surrender of all US troops in country to the Taliban. After years of neglect, substantial water and food shortages, and regular mortar and artillery fire, the vast majority of US troops obey the commander's order. The Taliban offer safe passage to all surrendering troops through Afghanistan and across Pakistan to the port of Gwadar, from where they will return to North America. China will finance the evacuation and guarantee the safe passage of the US troops.
A few holdouts remain, but they are easily disarmed by the Taliban forces in Afghanistan and face the Afghan legal system for any criminality that occurs in this process. The US Commander is one of the last to leave and accompanies his troops to Gwadar, from where he is returned to Washington to face a court martial for disobeying the chain of command.
Under the terms of the surrender, no US personnel may take any weaponry in the evacuation. The Taliban occupies the former US bases and secures the armouries. However, the Taliban fighters lack the technical skills to operate and maintain much of the equipment on the bases. The bases now become Taliban bases. The unhappy faces are removed and a happy face is placed on each base.
The United States calls for an emergency session of the UN Security Council to discuss the situation in Central Asia, with a view to imposing sanctions on Turkmenistan, resolve the military stand off in the region, and to secure the rescue of the US troops in Afghanistan. China vetoes this on the basis that the military stand off has resolved itself, that Chinese infrastructure will not be used to enable a military build up in the region, and that China - through the agency of the Taliban - has already resolved the question of US forces in Afghanistan.
Kazakhstan seeks to initiate a climate mitigation plan, which has the features of continuing to build water infrastructure, increasing internal security, and deploying food depots in cities. There is a problem with financing this because the hydrocarbon transit fees from Turkmenistan have petered out and China is delaying payment of hydrocarbons originating in Kazakhstan. This is starting to upset the delicate balance of power from within the ruling elite of Kazakhstan.
Whilst control of the population is maintained, climate refugees continue to flow into Kazakhstan. The population is starting to become hungry and fractious. There are small showings of popular discontent, but they are on a rising trend.
At this point the game ends. We see the United States routed in the region by the Taliban, who are now a new Chinese proxy, we see the encirclement and isolation of Iran, and we see China dominating Russia in the Eurasian Heartland. The fate of Kazakhstan is in the balance, outside the protection of the BRI, detached from support by Russia, and in somewhat of a limbo. Who can tell what would happen next? However, that would be a different game.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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