From the outset, we felt that the more interesting game for this region would be the continuation scenario. What would the Middle East look like if current trends and policies were to play out? Of course, this means that we have to highlight those trends and policies, convert them into player objectives, and see how they play out.
There are three large geopolitical trends that influence this game. All of them occur at the level of civilisational conflict. First, there is the emergence of the 'Biden Doctrine', which we take to mean that the United States will no longer act as the global policeman and will not be the guarantor of peace in the world. Second, we have the expansion of Chinese influence across Asia through the BRI programme. Third, there is a drive from Russia to escape from the strategic encirclement achieved during the Cold War.
These trends are reflected in the objectives of the three actors. The US was tasked with maintaining a degree of influence in the region, whilst also countering the expansion of Russian and Chinese influence. China was tasked with the expansion and building out of the BRI across the region, and Russia was tasked with acquiring warm water ports in Syria and Iran whilst providing assistance to Russian client states in the region.
We wanted to include a degree of co-operation between Russia and Saudi Arabia over the price of oil, which allowed us to access the overlay of regional conflict. Saudi Arabia was tasked with keeping the United States engaged in the region, as a counter to Iran, and using Saudi financial assets to maintain a degree of internal stability on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf. The regional and religious conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran gave us an ability to introduce a bit of tension within the game. Iran was tasked with developing its sale of hydrocarbons, internal development despite western sanctions, and becoming a nuclear state.
The potential for regional tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia also gave rise to the possibility of regional tension between Russia and Turkey. Turkey is an interesting case in hand. Formally part of the NATO infrastructure, Turkey has been drifting away from European influence in recent years and starting to embrace being an Asiatic nation. We assumed that this trend would continue and tasked Turkey with ensuring that she remained the Asian destination point for the BRI - largely through collaboration with Iran - and to secure the stability of the southern border by encouraging stability in Syria - this time, through collaboration with Russia - and by thwarting the national aspirations of the Kurds.
This final objective introduces quite well the local themes within the game. We represented two different types of state - the unitary (Syria) and the federal (Iraq). We wanted to explore these themes within the game. We did this by including the Kurdish element in Iraq, but by not including the opposition in Syria. The Iraqi government were tasked with holding the country together. This was despite a drive from the Iraqi Kurds for independence and despite a high degree of Iranian influence in eastern Iraq. The Kurdish element was tasked with achieving national sovereignty, but across Iraqi Kurdistan, Iranian Kurdistan, and Turkish Kurdistan. Syria, on the other hand, was tasked with holding the country together by maintaining the support of the Russian elements and by restricting an expansion of Saudi influence.
By 2020, much of the core infrastructure in the region was in place. However, we felt that the impact of a changing climate ought to have a sharper focus in the game, so we highlighted the development of resources to mitigate the impact of a changing climate - mainly water and food resources. We felt that we had scope to make the changing climate more of a factor than in previous games. This would have an impact upon society throughout the region and become a consequential driver of politics. Everything was set up for a collision of interests within the region. What would the players make of it?
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2022
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