As we move into the second half of the game, the game play starts to become set. The key areas of concern are Syria, Iraq, and Kurdistan. Russia and Iran - with the backing of China - seem firmly in control of the area. Turkey is playing a slightly different game with the spread of influence across Central Asia. The key uncertainty is over what the United States and Saudi Arabia can do about it? Can they act to counter the spread of Iranian influence? Can they counter the security presence of Russia? Could they develop a commercial counter-measure for China? The scene is set for a move towards confrontation in Turn 4.
As a result of the game play, the following events were recorded:
1. The United States has invested heavily in rare earth mineral
mining and processing capacity, drawing upon its own resources and
those of European allies. The result is that the shortage of rare
earth minerals has abated greatly, to the extent that the US is
creating a strategic reserve of them to ensure a smooth running and
fully functioning market. This has allowed the US and other OECD
economies to recover from the downturn in economic activity
previously experienced.
2. Russia is co-operating with China, Iran, and Turkey on the roll out of the BRI across the Trans Caucasus region. China has taken responsibility for the construction of of the surveyed routes in Turkey. There are rumours of Chinese technicians in Syria examining the feasibility of connecting Damascus and Tartus to the pan-Asian transportation network.
3. In the meantime, Russian engineers are surveying a BRI transportation route between Tehran, Eshfahan, and Basheri in Iran.
4. The Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation continues to grow. It now includes the Trans Caucasus nations, Iran, Syria, and China as members, with Turkey achieving observer status.
5. China continues to build out oil, gas, and transportation infrastructure across the region. China is investigating ways to include Syria in the BRI. Initial scoping work has started. China has announced that it's maritime priority will be closer to home for the immediate future, but wishes to maintain it's footprint in the region with priority given to the Pakistan naval station.
6. Iran has announced a civil and military cooperation agreement with Pakistan. This builds upon previous trading relationships and introduces a more formal arrangement for counter-party trade.
7. An investigation by the BBC suggests that the Iran-Pakistan trade agreement involved Iranian food and water supplies being delivered to Pakistan in return for the delivery of Pakistani fissile material to Iran. The fissile material has a North Korean footprint to it and suggestions have been made of possible Chinese involvement in the supply. All parties deny these reports. The BBC goes on to suggest that Iran now has sufficient fissile material, in a number of locations, to be able to start the production of nuclear warheads to be used with the existing Iranian missile stock.
8. Turkey has launched the Turkic Union, based upon similar principles to the European Union. This is an extension of the Turkish cultural initiative achieved in 2025. The nations of the Trans Caucasus region and Central Asia are invited to join the TU, but it has been met with only a lukewarm response. These nations are currently waiting for a lead from Russia before committing one way or another.
9. Saudi Arabia has launched a 'Greener Future' initiative that involves the construction of desalination plants, water pipelines and irrigation initiatives across the nation. This has reduced the water scarcity experienced in the and has increased food production. The lower food costs has met with a degree of approval from the population in Saudi Arabia, allowing for the unhappy faces to be removed.
10. Sadly, this initiative is restricted to Saudi Arabia. The Gulf States were not included in the initiative, resulting in further water stress and food shortages. Additional unhappy faces have been added to the Gulf States. Sporadic rioting has broken out in the Gulf States, mainly amongst the Shia communities there. At present, the anger of the crowds is directed against the Sunni rulers of the Gulf States, but more recently the American bases have come to the attention of the protesters.
11. The Federal Government of Iraq has tried to distance itself from the US in an attempt to appease the local Shia Imams. This has not been successful at all and, if anything, has worsened the situation. Iraq is still heavily reliant upon the US security apparatus in country. The Federal Government took control of the desalination plant and water pipeline, but still faces acute problems in securing labour and materials to build them out. The Imams have increased the stakes by now organising a strike and boycott of the port of Um Qsr, with the result that oil and gas exports from Iraq have been severely disrupted.
12. The Syrian government continues to fund the operations of Russian railway engineers, who are now based in Iran. The distribution of humanitarian aid continues, but the extent to which the Syrian government controls the country has remained static. Internationally, Syria has joined the Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation and has toyed with the idea of closing the Saudi Arabian embassy in Damascus.
13. The situation in Kurdistan is confused. The Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan has undertaken steps to assert it's authority in Kurdistan. However, there is evidence to suggest that the Iraqi forces have been operating inside Turkey. It is unclear whether or not Turkey authorised this incursion. There has been an influx of Kurds of Turkish origin into Iraq as climate refugees, seeking some of the assistance to Iraqi Kurds that has been provided by Iran. This has overwhelmed the local aid facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan, resulting in a number of violent clashes between Kurds of Turkish origin and Kurds of Iraqi origin. A campaign of car bombing has been experienced as the Turkish Kurds seek recognition of their plight from the Iraqi Kurds. To reflect this inter-community violence as Kurdistan drifts towards civil war, an unhappy face has been added to Iraqi Kurdistan.
14. Across the region, those nations with little or no poverty alleviation strategies have seen an additional unhappy face added to the existing unhappy faces. The governments of these areas will now start to become dysfunctional.
2. Russia is co-operating with China, Iran, and Turkey on the roll out of the BRI across the Trans Caucasus region. China has taken responsibility for the construction of of the surveyed routes in Turkey. There are rumours of Chinese technicians in Syria examining the feasibility of connecting Damascus and Tartus to the pan-Asian transportation network.
3. In the meantime, Russian engineers are surveying a BRI transportation route between Tehran, Eshfahan, and Basheri in Iran.
4. The Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation continues to grow. It now includes the Trans Caucasus nations, Iran, Syria, and China as members, with Turkey achieving observer status.
5. China continues to build out oil, gas, and transportation infrastructure across the region. China is investigating ways to include Syria in the BRI. Initial scoping work has started. China has announced that it's maritime priority will be closer to home for the immediate future, but wishes to maintain it's footprint in the region with priority given to the Pakistan naval station.
6. Iran has announced a civil and military cooperation agreement with Pakistan. This builds upon previous trading relationships and introduces a more formal arrangement for counter-party trade.
7. An investigation by the BBC suggests that the Iran-Pakistan trade agreement involved Iranian food and water supplies being delivered to Pakistan in return for the delivery of Pakistani fissile material to Iran. The fissile material has a North Korean footprint to it and suggestions have been made of possible Chinese involvement in the supply. All parties deny these reports. The BBC goes on to suggest that Iran now has sufficient fissile material, in a number of locations, to be able to start the production of nuclear warheads to be used with the existing Iranian missile stock.
8. Turkey has launched the Turkic Union, based upon similar principles to the European Union. This is an extension of the Turkish cultural initiative achieved in 2025. The nations of the Trans Caucasus region and Central Asia are invited to join the TU, but it has been met with only a lukewarm response. These nations are currently waiting for a lead from Russia before committing one way or another.
9. Saudi Arabia has launched a 'Greener Future' initiative that involves the construction of desalination plants, water pipelines and irrigation initiatives across the nation. This has reduced the water scarcity experienced in the and has increased food production. The lower food costs has met with a degree of approval from the population in Saudi Arabia, allowing for the unhappy faces to be removed.
10. Sadly, this initiative is restricted to Saudi Arabia. The Gulf States were not included in the initiative, resulting in further water stress and food shortages. Additional unhappy faces have been added to the Gulf States. Sporadic rioting has broken out in the Gulf States, mainly amongst the Shia communities there. At present, the anger of the crowds is directed against the Sunni rulers of the Gulf States, but more recently the American bases have come to the attention of the protesters.
11. The Federal Government of Iraq has tried to distance itself from the US in an attempt to appease the local Shia Imams. This has not been successful at all and, if anything, has worsened the situation. Iraq is still heavily reliant upon the US security apparatus in country. The Federal Government took control of the desalination plant and water pipeline, but still faces acute problems in securing labour and materials to build them out. The Imams have increased the stakes by now organising a strike and boycott of the port of Um Qsr, with the result that oil and gas exports from Iraq have been severely disrupted.
12. The Syrian government continues to fund the operations of Russian railway engineers, who are now based in Iran. The distribution of humanitarian aid continues, but the extent to which the Syrian government controls the country has remained static. Internationally, Syria has joined the Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation and has toyed with the idea of closing the Saudi Arabian embassy in Damascus.
13. The situation in Kurdistan is confused. The Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan has undertaken steps to assert it's authority in Kurdistan. However, there is evidence to suggest that the Iraqi forces have been operating inside Turkey. It is unclear whether or not Turkey authorised this incursion. There has been an influx of Kurds of Turkish origin into Iraq as climate refugees, seeking some of the assistance to Iraqi Kurds that has been provided by Iran. This has overwhelmed the local aid facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan, resulting in a number of violent clashes between Kurds of Turkish origin and Kurds of Iraqi origin. A campaign of car bombing has been experienced as the Turkish Kurds seek recognition of their plight from the Iraqi Kurds. To reflect this inter-community violence as Kurdistan drifts towards civil war, an unhappy face has been added to Iraqi Kurdistan.
14. Across the region, those nations with little or no poverty alleviation strategies have seen an additional unhappy face added to the existing unhappy faces. The governments of these areas will now start to become dysfunctional.
In the years 2041 to 2045, the price of oil rises from $79 a barrel to $84 a barrel.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2022
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