As we reach the penultimate turn of the game, much of the gameplay has been set by the previous moves. The tension is mounting, with Iran on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon, with Kurdistan on the verge of civil war, and with the climate fermenting popular unrest across the region. The question arises of what the Great Powers can do to contain the rising levels of violence. Could the United States become more engaged north of the Persian Gulf? Could China use it's commercial prowess to mitigate the worsening climate? Could the Russian sponsored regional structure provide the basis by which differences are settled? In this respect, it's still all to play for in Turn 5.
As a result of the game play, the following events were recorded:
1. The United States conducts an intelligence sweep of Iranian
military forces, using all of the available intelligence sources
available. This sweep is prioritised and involves Israeli and
European allies. It includes beefing up cyber and satellite defences
and offensive capabilities. It also includes deploying further
conventional forces into the bases situated along the Persian Gulf.
2. Russia, in conjunction with China, continues to work to strengthen the BRI assets. The Russian contribution to the collective effort is somewhat limited owing to on-going western sanctions placed upon the regime. The Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation continues to grow, and is starting to achieve a degree of traction within the region. There are now close partnerships between Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Iraq and Kurdistan.
3. China continues to bolster the defensive capabilities of the BRI partners. This includes the additional provision of the latest shore to ship missiles along the northern shores of the Persian Gulf, and, most importantly, the construction of a defensive naval base on Abu Musa.
4. Elsewhere, China has undertaken a series of defensive initiatives in East Asia, which includes preparations to evacuate Chinese citizens from the United States, preparations to freeze American assets in China, and the nationalisation of US companies engaged in technology manufacture within China. In a surprise move, China has removed the restrictions on the export of rare earth products to US entities, thus flooding the market and collapsing the price of rare earths.
5. Iran has announced the successful detonation of a nuclear warhead. This has been confirmed by the IAEA, who were invited to observe the tests. The warhead developed will be used in conjunction with existing Iranian medium range missile technology. The Revolutionary Guards now have a number of batteries of mobile medium range nuclear missiles.
6. Turkey has focussed on the completion of the obligations under the BRI agreement with China and now acts as a bridge between Europe and Asia. Actually, it's a tunnel, not a bridge, that goes underneath the Bosporus. It is hoped that this will enable Turkey to create a new forward looking relationship with regional actors, emphasising the important role of Turkic culture. The BRI induced stimulus has produced a degree of prosperity within Turkey that has allowed an unhappy face to be removed.
7. Saudi Arabia has undertaken a large programme of poverty alleviation in the Gulf States involving the provision of food and water. This has reduced the principal source of unhappiness in the Gulf States, reducing the number of unhappy faces from three to one (the local Shia underclass still feel oppressed by the Sunni minority ruling classes). Attempts to provide humanitarian aid to Western Iraq and Kurdistan have been hampered by the on-going civil unrest in Iraq, the closure of port facilities at Um Qsr, and the hostility of the local Shia Imams.
8. Iraq has sought and gained membership of the Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation. This has yet to provide immediate relief to the Federal Government as the terms of the accession have yet to be fully worked out. There is the hope that Russia will provide security assets, in conjunction with Turkey and Syria, and that Iran will provide humanitarian aid across the wider Federal Iraq.
9. Syria has restricted the movement of Saudi Arabian diplomats in Damascus and has confined them to their embassy premises. The Saudi backed Arabic Cultural Centre has been placed under the supervision of the Syrian authorities to ensure that the activities of the centre remain religious in their provision and do not acquire a political tinge.
10. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has declared itself as an independent sovereign state. The independence of the newly formed Kurdistan has been recognised by Iran, China, and Russia. Kurdistan has sought and obtained membership of the Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation, under which Russia has provided military assistance to the Kurdish Government.
11. Kurdish forces have seized the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, with the capital being located in Mosul. Under the terms of the humanitarian assistance provided by Iran, food, water, and medicines are now being provided to the residents of these cities. The enhanced Kurdish forces have closed the border between Turkey and Kurdistan in an attempt to stem the flow of refugees from Turkey. This has largely been successful and has allowed a degree of calm to enter into Kurdish civil society.
12. The Turkish Kurds are exceptionally unhappy at this treatment, with two further unhappy faces being placed upon their territory.
2. Russia, in conjunction with China, continues to work to strengthen the BRI assets. The Russian contribution to the collective effort is somewhat limited owing to on-going western sanctions placed upon the regime. The Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation continues to grow, and is starting to achieve a degree of traction within the region. There are now close partnerships between Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Iraq and Kurdistan.
3. China continues to bolster the defensive capabilities of the BRI partners. This includes the additional provision of the latest shore to ship missiles along the northern shores of the Persian Gulf, and, most importantly, the construction of a defensive naval base on Abu Musa.
4. Elsewhere, China has undertaken a series of defensive initiatives in East Asia, which includes preparations to evacuate Chinese citizens from the United States, preparations to freeze American assets in China, and the nationalisation of US companies engaged in technology manufacture within China. In a surprise move, China has removed the restrictions on the export of rare earth products to US entities, thus flooding the market and collapsing the price of rare earths.
5. Iran has announced the successful detonation of a nuclear warhead. This has been confirmed by the IAEA, who were invited to observe the tests. The warhead developed will be used in conjunction with existing Iranian medium range missile technology. The Revolutionary Guards now have a number of batteries of mobile medium range nuclear missiles.
6. Turkey has focussed on the completion of the obligations under the BRI agreement with China and now acts as a bridge between Europe and Asia. Actually, it's a tunnel, not a bridge, that goes underneath the Bosporus. It is hoped that this will enable Turkey to create a new forward looking relationship with regional actors, emphasising the important role of Turkic culture. The BRI induced stimulus has produced a degree of prosperity within Turkey that has allowed an unhappy face to be removed.
7. Saudi Arabia has undertaken a large programme of poverty alleviation in the Gulf States involving the provision of food and water. This has reduced the principal source of unhappiness in the Gulf States, reducing the number of unhappy faces from three to one (the local Shia underclass still feel oppressed by the Sunni minority ruling classes). Attempts to provide humanitarian aid to Western Iraq and Kurdistan have been hampered by the on-going civil unrest in Iraq, the closure of port facilities at Um Qsr, and the hostility of the local Shia Imams.
8. Iraq has sought and gained membership of the Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation. This has yet to provide immediate relief to the Federal Government as the terms of the accession have yet to be fully worked out. There is the hope that Russia will provide security assets, in conjunction with Turkey and Syria, and that Iran will provide humanitarian aid across the wider Federal Iraq.
9. Syria has restricted the movement of Saudi Arabian diplomats in Damascus and has confined them to their embassy premises. The Saudi backed Arabic Cultural Centre has been placed under the supervision of the Syrian authorities to ensure that the activities of the centre remain religious in their provision and do not acquire a political tinge.
10. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has declared itself as an independent sovereign state. The independence of the newly formed Kurdistan has been recognised by Iran, China, and Russia. Kurdistan has sought and obtained membership of the Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation, under which Russia has provided military assistance to the Kurdish Government.
11. Kurdish forces have seized the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, with the capital being located in Mosul. Under the terms of the humanitarian assistance provided by Iran, food, water, and medicines are now being provided to the residents of these cities. The enhanced Kurdish forces have closed the border between Turkey and Kurdistan in an attempt to stem the flow of refugees from Turkey. This has largely been successful and has allowed a degree of calm to enter into Kurdish civil society.
12. The Turkish Kurds are exceptionally unhappy at this treatment, with two further unhappy faces being placed upon their territory.
In the years 2046 to 2050, the price of oil rises from $84 a barrel to $93 a barrel.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2022
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