This is one of those books that ought to command our attention. It contains the seeds that are necessary to understand China's foreign policy and Russia's use of hybrid warfare. Underlying that, it begs the question: if the Westphalian system is failing, what may replace it? This is one of the larger questions of our times.
The western liberal democracies certainly feel as if they are in retreat, or at least in need of renewal. Whether this can be ascribed to terminal decline or just simply a process of updating remains to be seen. However, the populist surge, the rise of myopic nationalism, and the development of siege economies all point towards a very different world in the years to come. I am not entirely convinced by the argument of civilisational decline, and neither is the author. And yet if we are in a period of terminal decline, what other options are there?
The author argues that the China of Xi Jinping aspires to become a civilisational state. I think that he has a case. Much of Chinese policy can seem opaque when viewed through a Westphalian lens. Yet when through a Chinese lens, it makes perfect sense. For example, take the case of the BRI. This baffles many western strategists because it makes no sense in transactional terms. However, in terms of tributary diplomacy, it fits into a pattern of Chinese foreign policy that goes back for centuries. The concept of the civilisational state helps us to understand contemporary, and future, policy.
Another aspirant to become a civilisational state is the Russia of President Putin. The author is a bit sceptical of this claim. The desire of Russia, it is stated, is to establish a Eurasian civilisation, with Russia at it's head. There is more than a grain of truth to this view. The exercise of power by contemporary Russia contradicts the claim. The use of raw power to achieve national and factional objectives undermines the claim to be acting on behalf of a civilisation. Yet the core view helps us to understand why Russia feels itself the guardian of the Slavic civilisation, and why it feels compelled to act in it's near neighbourhood.
The book considers two other interesting contenders to be seen as civilisational states - India and ISIS. The claim by India to be a civilisational state is undermined by the absence of an Indian civilisation. There is an Indian culture, but that culture has such diverse origins from within the sub-continent that it is too much of a stretch to call it an Indian civilisation. The claim by ISIS to represent an Islamic civilisation is again undermined by the sheer diversity of experience and belief within that putative civilisation. It does beg the question of whether a religion could represent a civilisation, but it would be outside the scope of the book to give that question too deep a consideration.
The book is reasonably well written for an academic text. The arguments are presented clearly and are easy to follow. I was impressed by the scholarship of the author, who seems to have grasped his subject very well. This is definitely a specialist book, and one I can recommend to those who have an interest in this area.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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