The Unfrozen North - Turn 6 (2050)

By 2050, the eastern half of the Arctic Ocean is almost completely free of ice. A small remnant of the Polar Ice Cap sits at the North Pole and the Central Route is almost open. The North West Passage remains open via Cambridge Bay and Resolute. At that point, there is far greater activity in the Arctic Ocean than seen in 2020.

There is a commercial agreement between Japan and Russia to provide Japan with preferential transit rates along the Northern Route across the Arctic. This operates in conjunction with a set of preferential fishing access tariffs paid by the Japanese commercial fishing fleet to the Russian commercial interests collecting them. In a further act of collaboration, Japan and Russia agreed to the Japanese purchase of Russian hydrocarbons and minerals originating in the Arctic. These contracts are to be denominated in US Dollars and settled in Tokyo, this giving Russian commercial entities access to the Tokyo capital markets. Russia has strengthened her sales of hydrocarbons and minerals to the UK and Japan, and deepened her presence in the capital markets of both nations.

As an act of hubris, China held a military parade on the North Pole to celebrate the centenary of the ending of the 'Century of Humiliation'. Russia agrees to permit the parade as a means of asserting their territorial claim to the North Pole, and Russian military units joined with Chinese military units for the celebration. Military units from the US, Japan, Canada, and Europe were invited to join the celebration, but declined. The review parade started from the Russian and Chinese military port facilities in Tiksi. The result of the parade was to underline the existence of the Polar Silk Road and to provide internal propaganda value to China, even though the international community was far from impressed.

Elsewhere, the flow of Kazakh, Tajik, and Turkmen refugees has now entered the Xinjiang region of China causing a large degree of dissent amongst the native Uighur residents. A series of outrages have been committed by the East Turkestan Party against Han Chinese residents in Xinjiang. More worryingly, the unrest and dissent has now spread to Tibet.

The United States attempts to resolve the refugee crisis through internal and external actions. Whilst achieving widespread popular support, the necessary funding is not approved by Congress. In the meantime, the flow of climate and economic refugees from Central America continues unabated. The lack of economic opportunities in the US, coupled by heavy handed policing, has led to a period of considerable racial tension and urban disorder. At the same time, many refugees from Central America have continued their migration northwards into Canada. There are growing racial tensions in the cities of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. Disorder so far has been minor and spasmodic. 

The European Commission seeks to form a fiscal compact between the Arctic EU nations and the southern EU nations that are suffering the impact of the refugee crisis. Significant funds are proposed to resolve the twin problems, but do not receive support from the contributory nations, led by Germany. The proposal remains scheduled, but is not put to a vote.

In the meantime, the unabated flow of refugees into Europe from Africa and the Middle East has given rise to growing support of far right parties, which combine a brand of forceful repatriation with Euroscepticism. The 2049 elections to the European Parliament saw a majority of seats going to the Identity and Democracy faction. The new Commission President will be a Eurosceptic who does not believe in the EU project.

Canada continues to seek to activate the Arctic military assets with minimal success. Much infrastructure remains suited to the Cold War and the Frozen North and is badly in need of upgrade. In 2049, a submarine of unknown origin laid a sequence of mines in the waterways just south of Resolute. The mines later proved to be inactivated dummies and took over eight months to clear. The capability of an unknown actor to close the North West Passage had been demonstrated and insurance rates for freight using that route rose to impossibly high levels.

At this point we closed the game. The Arctic Ocean had become a major shipping transit route, a key source of hydrocarbons and minerals, and a fishery of significance. The region had become militarised by Russia and China, with the greater degree of development along the Russian Arctic coast. China had built out the Polar Silk Road, Russia had gained readmittance to the European and Far Eastern capital markets, and Japan had achieved a degree of energy security whilst preserving the use of key trade routes in the Arctic Ocean. The NATO nations fared less well. The US was absorbed by internal matters. Without it's lead, Canada suffered environmental degradation along their Arctic coastline. Europe continued the perpetual squabble about who gets what, and who pays for it.

The world in 2050 had a distinctly Asian feel to it. Perhaps it will be an Asian Century after all?

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

© The European Futures Observatory 2020