By 2045, the eastern hemisphere was almost ice free. The retreat of the Polar Ice Cap had started to accelerate along the Canadian coastline. The North West Passage, via Cambridge Bay and Resolute, is now open. This will allow seaborne transit between the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay.
The United States Senate voted to ratify US approval of UNCLOS, and voted to join the institutional framework surrounding the convention.
As a response to the opening of the North West Passage, the RCMP has been repurposed to include an Arctic capability. A summer naval station at Nanisivik is available to be repurposed as an Arctic home port. The port would need to be transferred to the RCMP and needs to have a supply and aviation facility developed to become fully operational. The current fleet of RCMP vessels are unsuited to the task of Arctic operations, but are suited to protect Canadian sovereign territories and seaways, and to maintain the environmental integrity of the Great Lakes area.
Russia is extracting mineral and hydrocarbons from the Barents Sea area, in addition to the hydrocarbons being extracted from the Yamal area. Russia and China signed a 99 year lease for commercial and military port facilities at Tiksi. Operations include securing the sea lanes within the Arctic and assisting the Russian navy with it's anti-poaching and anti-piracy operations. Chinese investments have strengthened the Polar Silk Road, which is now a major trade route between China, Central Asia, Europe, and the eastern US seaboard. Japan endorses the Polar Silk Road, but South Korea remains ambivalent about it.
Japan proposed an East Asian Union but the idea failed to take root with China, Russia, Malaysia, and the Philippines blocking the proposal. However, the proposal did bring forward an expression of friendly relations between Russia and Japan. The Japanese military presence on the Kamchatka Peninsula was clarified by Russia. It consists of a naval logistics facility without any warfighting capability, whose mission is to supply Japanese naval vessels involved in securing the Arctic sea lanes.
The European Commission repealed the obligation of Greenland, Iceland, and Norway to collect the 80% tariff formerly imposed upon fishing catches originating in the Arctic and landed on their respective home ports. The populations of Greenland, Iceland, and Norway are less unhappy with the European Commission as a result of this.
The role of the Arctic Council only received a modest boost from the European tariffs being purposed for research into biodiversity. Russia confirmed that the tariffs collected by the various commercial entities operating under their programme didn't see research on biodiversity as a priority.
There was a major oil spill at an oil terminal at Tiksi owing to
Russian negligence in operating the newly installed machinery and
faulty Chinese installation. It was exacerbated by a delay in
reporting the problem and an unwillingness to own up to it. Given
the winds, tides, and currents, the oil slick is circulating
anticlockwise around the Arctic Ocean, and is now evident in the
Beaufort Sea. It is washing up on both the Canadian and US coastline
and will require a major clean-up effort.
The climate refugee crisis has now turned into a major political crisis. The United States is suffering from political gridlock in Congress. The bi-partisanship behind ratifying UNCLOS has now vanished and the President can from now on expect a hostile Congress, one in which no Presidential initiatives will pass.
Elsewhere, large numbers of Kazakh, Tajik, and Turkmen refugees have entered the Xinjiang Region of China causing a degree of dissent amongst the native Uighur residents. There have been a series of outbreaks of disorder, that have been relatively low level, but have the capacity to escalate into something more serious.
Further west, large numbers of African and Middle Eastern refugees have been entering Europe and now threaten to turn a humanitarian crisis into a political crisis. Greece, Italy, and Spain have threatened to halt all European business unless the situation is relieved. Croatia, Hungary, and Austria have threatened to block all European business if there is an attempt to relieve the situation. The refugee crisis is now at the top of the European policy agenda.
The climate refugee crisis has now turned into a major political crisis. The United States is suffering from political gridlock in Congress. The bi-partisanship behind ratifying UNCLOS has now vanished and the President can from now on expect a hostile Congress, one in which no Presidential initiatives will pass.
Elsewhere, large numbers of Kazakh, Tajik, and Turkmen refugees have entered the Xinjiang Region of China causing a degree of dissent amongst the native Uighur residents. There have been a series of outbreaks of disorder, that have been relatively low level, but have the capacity to escalate into something more serious.
Further west, large numbers of African and Middle Eastern refugees have been entering Europe and now threaten to turn a humanitarian crisis into a political crisis. Greece, Italy, and Spain have threatened to halt all European business unless the situation is relieved. Croatia, Hungary, and Austria have threatened to block all European business if there is an attempt to relieve the situation. The refugee crisis is now at the top of the European policy agenda.
The world in 2045 is one that is characterised by environmental setbacks caused by climate change, large flows of people moving away from an ever worsening climate, and the early signs of conflict resulting from these changes. Will the picture improve by 2050?
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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