In what has become an annual publication, The Economist has taken to publishing a series of speculative scenarios that consider what the world would look like if certain key events were to happen. The speculations are in the form of end state scenarios (i.e. they describe what the world looks like at that key point in the future) rather than process scenarios (i.e. they are fairly thin on how we managed to arrive at that end state). They represent how a more general readership expects to consume futures work.
From our perspective, we tend to be more involved in process scenarios because it seems to us more important to see how we get from the present to the future. The timelines involved are central because they can provide milestones to gauge which future, from an array of competing alternative futures, is emerging as we move away from the present. This is not to invalidate end state futures. It is simply not our cup of tea.
The scenarios were published in the summer of 2017. I read them at the time, but set them aside for more mature reflection. Coming to them again in the summer of 2018 gives me the benefit of a year's hindsight. The most striking thing about the scenarios is the way in which they reflect the hopes and concerns of summer 2017. Some are current a year later, some are really no longer that interesting.
For example, the opening piece examines what France could look like if President Macron's reforms were to be successful. The reforms would not only rejuvenate the French economy, but also give France a stronger voice within the European framework. They would give Mr Macron (who is assumed to be re-elected for a second term) a platform to encourage Germany to undertake the public investment that it is currently reluctant to do. Those were the hopes of 2017. The reality of 2018 is President Macron struggling to reform the French economy, Germany to continue to pull ahead of France, and underinvestment in public services continuing in Germany. This has become an idle hope.
It contrasts quite strongly with the following piece, which considers what the world would look like if President Trump were to win a second term. We may shudder at that thought, but it ought to be given serious consideration. The most serious speculation is that a second Trump term would simply run out of steam. The view is expressed that the Trump administration is policy light, which allows him to be buffeted by events. There is a certain attractiveness to this view. Once the tax cuts have been passed, what else is there? The wall between the US and Mexico continues unbuilt, President Trump continues to be disengaged in foreign affairs, and he has the good luck to enjoy an economy that motors along. One note in the piece sounds off today - President Trump is very unlikely to stand against Mark Zuckerberg in 2020. In less than a year, Mr Zuckerberg has become very damaged goods.
The scenarios are organised into four sections: politics, business & economics, science & technology, and history. The historical section contains only one piece on what the world would have looked like had the Ottoman Empire not collapsed after World War I. My favourite piece is in the science & technology section. It examines what the world would be like if an electro-magnetic pulse were to disable large parts of the electrical grid in the US. This is already the subject of a number of works in fiction, but this piece draws together in short form some of the various consequences. It is one of those wild card futures that deserves more attention than it receives.
I imagine that I will return to these scenarios from time to time. I quite enjoyed reading them. They are well written and well thought out, even if they have dated quite soon. They are an expression of our thinking in 2017 and in no way constitute a forecast of future events. They are an idle speculation, if this were to happen, then what would the world look like? It's best to bear that in mind when reading them.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2018
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