I have started to work through the current instalment of 'The World If' series - a published supplement to The Economist. Although two points don't make a trend, there is a regularity that is appearing within these publications. They remain a set of end state scenarios. They continue to be organised into four sections: politics, business & economics, science & technology, and history. One difference this year appears to be a greater inclusion of a process based approach to the end state scenarios. The path by which we arrive at the end state scenarios has taken a greater emphasis. It is hoped that this trend continues.
Some of the scenarios continue some of the themes from 2017. For example, there is a scenario that asks what if China were to dominate the world order in 2024. What would the world look like if it were to be a Chinese rules based system? This is an interesting question that is predicated by a Trump second term, which was one of the speculations in the 2017 edition. The answer to that question suggested by the piece is pretty discomforting to western readers. We see a fairly full deployment of the surveillance state. The automation of transport and the internet of things are used to harvest masses of data about individuals which is then used for the purposes of social control. The scenario draws a picture of a Chinese world order as one in which an authoritarian state is greatly enhanced. I imagine that we have all been warned now.
Another scenario that caught my eye is not set too far in the future - in 2020, to be exact - and concerns the break up of the European Union. In this scenario, there are two triggers - an increasing authoritarianism in Eastern Europe (Poland in this case), and a growing disillusionment with the Euro as a currency (in Italy, in this case). There is also a backdrop of a further migrant crisis in the summer of 2019, which just sharpens the point a little. It's quite a well worked scenario. By being very close to the present, there are a number of pointers in European politics to be aware of. The most acute of these is the European budget, which has yet to be set, and has the uncertainty of not knowing what contribution, if any, can be expected from the United Kingdom. In this scenario, then monetary arrangements are the breaking point. That sounds about right.
There are one or two fanciful scenarios. For example, one asks what the world would be like if there were to be no moon. I accept that this is an interesting question, but I see it as no more than an indulgent curiosity. I do wonder of the editorial team has run out of steam? There are far more interesting questions that a future science & technology pose that could have been asked, but weren't. For example, we could have bee asked if there is a technological solution to climate change? Or does synthetic biology have the potential to feed the world whilst retaining our dietary habits? I do wonder about the contributions of futurists to this publication because they seem fairly absent. I wonder if their inclusion would improve it?
The historical scenario is an interesting counter-factual speculation on what might have happened had Martin Luther King not been assassinated? This I found interesting because the article suggested that his reputation would have been much lower than currently is. He might have lived, but his reputation would have been nowhere near as high as it currently stands. What I found interesting is the parallel this scenario has with one in which President Kennedy hadn't been assassinated. Both speculations suggest that they were killed at the peak of their reputations, which have only been enhanced as the memory fades and the myth takes over, and the myth then becomes extended and exaggerated. Of course, this is just idle speculation.
I shall add these scenarios to my bank of end state scenarios because they provide useful way points in constructing timelines. My current take away is the significance of the current push by President Trump to be re-elected and how Europe adjusts to a post-Brexit environment. Both of these are imminent and both appear to be significant potential turning points. They are currently not studied as much as they ought to be, but that only provides a commercial opportunity for a futurist in practice.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2018
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