It was something of a gamble to include the Taliban as an actor in the game. Their location and the assets under their control were only known to the Taliban player. A key factor in the game was exactly where were the Taliban located and what support did they command? In this respect, an element of the gameplay was the hunt for an elusive adversary.
The game design pushed the players along one of two lines. One option would be to co-operate with the Taliban, in which case their location and disposition was of lesser importance as long as they delivered their promises. In the game, China adopted this approach. At the start of the game, Chinese remittances to the Taliban for hydrocarbon transit fees were an important source of income for the Taliban. This formed the basis for later co-operation. Iran also tried to adopt this approach, but with little success because the Taliban saw Iran as an adversary rather than an ally. The Taliban saw their role as one of frustrating the Iranian ambitions in the region.
The other option was a more confrontational approach. This approach was adopted by the US, Russia, and Kazakhstan. In many respects, the US missed an opportunity by not co-operating with the Taliban. At the start of the game, the Taliban and the US had started to work together in Afghanistan. If America was to counter Chinese ambitions in the region, they would have to work with the Taliban, probably against Russia and Kazakhstan. The conflict between Russia and the Taliban was more direct. Russia started the game as the power of influence in the region, but that influence was in decline, just as that of China and the Taliban was in the ascendant. Kazakhstan tended to follow the lead of Russia, which placed it on a trajectory of conflict with the Taliban.
At the start of the game, as a feature of design, we gave the Taliban areas of control in the Karakum Desert in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; in eastern Iran, northern Afghanistan, south Turkmenistan and south Uzbekistan; and a third area in the Hindu Kush across southern Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and western China. These are the areas shaded solid green in the map and are based upon the actual areas of Taliban support in 2020. The degree of support in 2020 varied from strong to fairly weak.
In the first two moves, the Taliban player sought to extend the areas of support further into Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan (shaded with green lines in the map). They also sought to deepen their support amongst the population through a programme of income support, social provision, and by instituting a form of local justice. In areas where the local justice system is characterised by corruption, where incomes are very low and social provision is generally lacking, the modest governance of the Taliban, the umpires felt, would be preferable to the governance of the legacy-Soviet regimes in place. This allowed the Taliban to become very dug in across their support areas.
In this endeavour, they were assisted by the changing climate. At the end of 2025, a sequence of benign growing seasons were experienced that favoured the growth of opium poppies. This flooded Europe and North America with cheaply produced heroin. To counter this, the United States instituted a programme where cereals were purchased directly from the Taliban at prices that were far in excess of market rates. This programme continued out to 2050.
By 2030, the climate had started to turn hostile to cereal growth, reducing crop yields. The relative price inelasticity of demand for cereal crops gave yet a further revenue boost to the Taliban. In turn, the Taliban used these revenues partly for the purchase of weaponry, but mostly for income support and social assistance across the region. This further bolstered their support. The Taliban continued the programme of poverty alleviation well into 2035, by which time the climate had started to become quite hostile to human life.
The United States attempted to counter the influence of the Taliban in 2030 by training the local security forces at Mari in Turkmenistan and at Bukhara in Uzbekistan. Unknown to the Americans, these sites were in the heart of Taliban territory, and where the local support for the Taliban was well entrenched. The umpires decided that most of the local recruits to these facilities would be Taliban and ruled that of the recruits, 80% didn't follow the chain of command, 15% were 'no shows', and 5% took the training seriously and kept to the chain of command. In this respect, the US was training and equipping the Taliban military forces.
It was a similar story with the Russians. Russia established a training facility at Kulob in Tajikistan and at Bishket in Kyrgyzstan. Kulob was in the heart of Taliban territory in the Hindu Kush, with a similar result as that experienced by the United States. Bishket was outside of the area of Taliban control, so more recruits there followed the Russian chain of command.
The prowess of the newly trained and armed Taliban military force was demonstrated in 2030. At that time, the Russian player sought to establish a military base in south Kyrgyzstan on the border with China. There was a fierce firefight that resulted in the Russians withdrawing from that position after considerable losses and abandoning the idea of establishing a military base in that part of the Hindu Kush.
The effective strength of the Taliban in the region had somewhat surprised the other actors. In 2035, the United States undertook a full intelligence review of Taliban strength and intentions. This was only partially successful, with only out of date information about Taliban dispositions being uncovered, and only a partial review of Taliban intentions becoming known to America.
By 2040, the Taliban were strong enough to seize control of Turkmenistan and to form a provisional government. The new government was recognised by Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Existing contracts for the flow of hydrocarbons with China and Iran were confirmed and would be honoured in the future. The border between Iran and Turkmenistan remained open.
The government of Turkmenistan was not recognised by the United States, Russia, and Kazakhstan. All US, Russian, and Kazakh assets in Turkmenistan were nationalised and existing contracts voided. This upset various American and Russian business interests. The border between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan remained open, allowing trade to continue, but on an uncertain contractual basis.
The Taliban asked the government of the United States to vacate the training facility at Mari. The US complied and vacated the base. Encouraged by this, the Taliban sought to forcibly close the US training base at Bukhara in Uzbekistan. The US troops resisted and in the resulting firefight suffered very high casualties. All actors were surprised at how well trained and well armed the Taliban military forces were. The US commander called in ground support from US air assets in Afghanistan, but these were intercepted and shot down by Taliban surface to air missiles in southern Uzbekistan that had a distinct Russian signature. All US military flights in the region were grounded pending an investigation and the government of Afghanistan became fearful of its position.
The events in the Karakum Desert in 2040 started a chain of events that would result in the Battle of Turkmenbashi in 2045. However, that's a different story for a different day.
It was interesting to operate an actor that was largely concealed to the other players. Those who worked with the Taliban tended to fare better than those in conflict with them. The Taliban were helped enormously by the poverty and corruption within the region. The lack of social and economic development from the other players gave the Taliban an uncontested run at their objectives. Towards the end of the game, China managed to counter the Taliban objectives. Interestingly enough, that was from within a co-operative framework rather than one of conflict. Perhaps that's an important lesson to be learned from the game?
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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