The game has started to move towards its core events. We are now halfway through the game and the positions of the players are starting to unfold. We are starting to see collaboration in the northern part of the map and conflict in the southern part. No single player has yet come to dominate the game. The climate, though, is starting to make itself felt.
As a consequence of the adverse weather conditions, agricultural yields - especially those of cereal crops - have fallen across the region. Within the region, demand for agricultural produce exhibits a high degree of price inelasticity, meaning the increase in price outweighs the reduction in quantity sold. As a result, agricultural revenues increase. In the C4 nations, this increased revenue largely flows out of the country.
Using the additional revenues from their agricultural operations, the Taliban undertakes a a major programme of poverty alleviation in the area under their control. This results in a deepening of popular support for the Taliban in those areas under their control.
Iran embarked on a programme to survey potential routes for oil and water pipelines across Iran and the Hindu Kush. A survey of the route Busher (the main base of the water exchange) - Shiraz - Esfahan - Tehran - Mashad commences, and should be complete by 2040. The proposed route across the Hindu Kush was opposed by the Taliban, so work to date has not started on that proposal.
The United States undertook a programme to gain a degree of intelligence on Central Asia. This was partially successful. The areas under Taliban control in 2020 were made known to the American player. Since 2020, the Taliban have extended their support base across the region and they have
deepened their support base across the region.
Intelligence was also obtained on the Taliban intentions in the region as follows:
"Funds raised by trade are routed via financial
institutions in Astana, Tashkent, and Ashgabat. The Taliban
have a mixed relationship with the central Asian states. On
the one hand, the Kazakh, Uzbek, and Turkmen institutions are
keen to process Taliban finances, much of which is in US
Dollars. On the other hand, the central Asian states, such as
Kazakhstan, are suspicious of Taliban motives and are
unwilling to be fully supportive because they feel their
southern boundaries to be vulnerable to Islamist influence."
The United States also obtained intelligence on Russia as follows:
"The event known as 9-11 led to a change
of US policy in the region. To punish the Taliban, an American
led coalition of nations on a policy of regime change in
Afghanistan. This was successful, the Taliban were de-throned.
However, they were defeated but not destroyed and have been
resisting the US for a generation. The threat of the Taliban
and the lack of American success has allowed Russia to
establish military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, with
whom Russia has quite cordial relations."
The United States also obtained a military assessment of the Taliban that states that the Taliban are
well armed with both US and Russian weaponry that has a contemporary
vintage, they are very numerous across the C4 region, and that the
experience the Russian attempts to establish a new military camp in south Kyrgyzstan suggests that, in the absence of a
significant increase in troop numbers, the US would be outclassed by
the Taliban. They are well funded, well equipped, and well
organised.
Russia, Kazakhstan, and China jointly embarked on a programme to build out the Kurgan to Urumqi BRI rail route. China would finance the work, Russia would construct it, and Kazakhstan would operate the rolling stock on the Russian owned track. The work would take 20 years to complete and is set to open, if unopposed, in 2050. The adverse weather has affected construction activity across the region. Conditions have worsened leading to the Orenburg-Urumqi gas pipeline to run late. It is now scheduled for completion in 2050.
As a consequence of building out the Kurgan to Urumqi BRI rail route, the Russian state now has a substantial long term indebtedness to Chinese banks. This, along with sanctions imposed by western agencies, will limit the ability of Russia to access further capital. It will hamper the ability of Russia to conduct military operations in the region.
There is a movement of populations from the rural hinterlands into the larger population areas in the region. With the exception of Iran (which has a relative abundance of water and food after 2025), the urban populations are hungry, thirsty, poor, and angry. Unhappy faces will go on all capital cities of the C5 nations and Kabul.
The flow of hydrocarbons for all entities, except those of US origin, across the Karakum Desert continues to be severely disrupted.
In the years 2036 to 2040 the average price of oil rises from $50 per barrel to $51 per barrel.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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