The opening moves in any game are always a little tentative, as the players start to feel their way around the issues involved and as they start to sound out the other players to see who they can work with, and who they will compete against. This was very much how we began the game in the opening turn. Equally true, the players started to lay down their initial moves to allow them to move towards their ultimate objectives.
The initial move of the Taliban was to extend and consolidate the areas under their control. This move extended the influence of the Taliban across the Karakum Desert further into Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and further across the Hindu Kush into Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, deeper into both Iran and China. The Taliban consolidated their influence through a programme of income support and an impartial system of local justice, free from the corruption that is endemic in the region.
Iran took steps to ensure a degree of water security by developing a network of desalinisation plants. This would draw upon existing technical expertise in this area and provide an outlet for domestically generated investment funds. The programme would utilise Iranian energy reserves and be used to bolster food security through an irrigation programme. The result was to improve the levels of happiness within Iran by reducing the degree of social and economic distress caused by water shortages, food shortages, and rural poverty.
Kazakhstan embarked upon a major programme to improve the transportation sector. Drawing upon Russian and Chinese technical expertise through the involvement of Russian and Chinese companies, Kazakhstan starts to become a regional player in the transportation sector. This allows the government to offer space launch and landing services to other nations at the Baikonur space facility.
The rail enhancements in Kazakhstan are to be built on the old Soviet railway gauge. This creates the need for an off-loading and on-loading facility to be constructed at the Dzungarian Gate because the Chinese railway system operates on the standard railway gauge. Freight would have to be off-loaded from Chinese rolling stock and loaded onto Kazakh rolling stock at the border.
China planned to complete the rail link between Tashkent and Bandar Abbas, going via Samarkand, Bukhara, Mari, and Mashad. China had wanted Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, and the Taliban to partner the development of the rail link, but these actors refused to co-operate. Iran and the Taliban did not see the proposal as mutually beneficial. An understanding of sorts was achieved between Russia and China, but not between Kazakhstan, the Taliban, and China. The prospect floundered and no action was taken to complete the rail link.
The US sought to establish military and police training facilities in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to enhance the security environment in the region. Russia supports the initiative, which is welcomed by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, but not by Kazakhstan. The proposal is to be delivered by USAID. It will involve the direct use of US military personnel, but without any basing facilities. Training facilities are established at Bukhara in Uzbekistan and at Mari in Turkmenistan. Diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and the US improve, despite the US rebuttal over the offer of training facilities.
Unknown to other players, this greatly assists the Taliban who control the towns of Mari and Bukhara and the associated hinterlands. It means that the Taliban supply 80% of the recruits to the US training programme, who can now be considered as being trained in the latest US military doctrine using the latest US weapons. The troops are available for deployment anywhere in the region under Taliban control, either as Talban troops or as false flag troops pretending to be Americans.
Russia planned to build out the Orenburg to Urumqi gas pipeline. It has the support of China, the US, Iran, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. An agreement is reached between Russia and the US over the security of the pipeline, but Kazakhstan has remained aloof from the agreement. Russia and Iran reach a mutual understanding concerning each of their infrastructure projects that involve China. This allows Russia to stay within the good grace of China. The pipeline construction is scheduled for completion in 2045.
In the years 2026 to 2030, there are a sequence of benign growing seasons in the Hindu Kush. This gives rise to a bumper poppy crop, leading to a flood of heroin and opiates onto the European and North American markets. The newly upgraded transportation facilities will enhance this trade.
Unknown to other players, this greatly assists the Taliban, who control the opium trade in a region that supplies the vast majority of global opium poppy output. The proceeds of the trade are laundered through Dubai, from where the Taliban operates the financial dimension of their operations.
In the years 2026 to 2030, the average price of oil rises from $40 per barrel to $45 per barrel.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
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